If Trading was Easy…

If trading was easy, nobody would ever go to work again.

Just listen to CNBC: Depending where the S&P 500 index stands in relation to the 50-day or 200-day moving average, you know how to go long or short in the markets.

Simple, isn’t it?

This trading algorithm can be programmed and put on the chart in 15 minutes – set and done.

How comes that the vast majority of traders and investors fail when it comes to achieving their financial goals?

Conventional technical analysis is a lagging the real market action and produces high risk, low reward, low probability trading and investing setups. By the time those indicators tell you to buy or sell, the low risk, high reward opportunity has passed and the typical circle of doom starts:

Small win, small win, big loss.

How to prevent this?

Focus on supply and demand patterns:

All institutional buying and selling goes through the market makers. They recognize a higher demand or supply and change their price offer immediately; this is where you want to pick up your trade: At points where the supply and demand levels moved the price for the first increment that others or all market participants recognize that something is going on.

The crowd follows the leader. When more participants enter with buy or sell orders, this is when you want to trade, specifically when you can approximate how far the market pressure can carry the trade. We use what we call the SPU (Speed Unit) measure for this exercise; giving you clear cut entry and exit prices at the beginning of every trade. The next challenge is to find your stop level: Best slightly outside the price range so you allow the asset price to move to target without triggering the stop.

On this basis, we built the NeverLossTrading pricing or decision making model:

Institutional Money Moves Put into an Algorithm by NeverLossTrading

Pricing Model NLT

When do you trade?

When the odds are in your favor; not when it is 9:30 a.m. ET:

Probability of the Trade Setup (past performance) * Reward/ (Risk*Probability of Failing) > 1.5

If your current trading system does not give you the answer to those questions and you are not making the desired income, you might want to ask yourself, why repeating the same pattern should give you different results?

Depending on the time and frequency you can dedicate to trading or investing, NeverLossTrading developed various programs for day trading, swing trading and long-term investing; helping you to spot and follow institutional money moves.

Today, July 23, 2014, we choose a Crude Oil Futures Chart and with a 1-Hour Time Frame, where signals from NLT HF-Day Trading and NLT Top-Line indicate directional price moves.

According to the pricing model sown above, signals are only to be considered, when the next candle surpasses the set price threshold.

In the upcoming example, you will see how we calculate the minimum expected price move after confirmed institutional engagement and mark it with a dot on the chart. In addition we show you how we use a quantitative analysis model and put price ranges on the chart where our algorithms foresee institutional engagement, which drives prices from one NLT Lime Line to another.

This example shall also show you the higher complexity to consider in trading. Assuming that everybody can make money by using two moving averages sounds a bit too easy. Indicators like MACD, CCI, Bollinger Bands, and many others are one way or the other moving average based and most likely will not get you where you want to be.

Hence, trading is not easy, cannot be learned in 1-hour and needs a lot of dedication and effort for every trader to get where you want to be. NeverLossTrading is here to support you!

Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart with NLT HF and NLT Top-Line Signals

Crude Oil Lime Line Trade

The chart above has multiple layers of information from the left to the right you see:

  1. Purple Zone: A special indicator showing ambiguity. Usually after a zone of ambiguity a directional price move happens after the spelled out price threshold is surprassed.
  2. Red signal to short Crude Oil (NLT Top-Line signal). The signal was confirmed by the next candle ticking out the low and a directional move happened.
  3. Purple Sell Signal (confirmed). A directional price moves is happening and we can trade along taking our target either at the marked dot on the chart or at the NLT Lime Line.
  4. NLT Lime-Lines derive from the Quant Theory, where you estimate price levels where institutions rather buy when the price stays above them or sell when the price falls below.
  5. Light-Green NLT HF-Signal, indicating institutional engagement spotted by a volume differential algorithm.
  6. Pink NLT HF-Signal marking a potential turn around point, from where the price could even go to the satellite NLT Lime Line and did.
  7. Blue NLT Top-Line Buy Signals (confirmed), with target at the blue dot or NLT Lime-Line.
  8. Purple Signal (confirmed) with a target either at the dot or at the NLT Lime Line.

At times, we are asked if a new trader can test run our systems.

Our answer is twofold:

Yes, we are happy to give you an online demonstration, where you call the symbols and time frames and we show you how the system performs, counting good trades and bad trades.

No, in consideration that we cannot provide a free software installation: We need four to six hours of programming. In addition, you will need about 20-hours of training (mostly catered in 2-hour session, individually recorded, focused on your specific wants and needs) to put you in the position for trading NLT HF or NLT Top-Line to the given rules and specifications.

Take the chance to test us live. Schedule a free consulting hour, where we get together online, share our screens with you and answer your questions:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Call: +1 866 455 4520

This will also give you a glimpse, how you can develop yourself into the trader you want to be.

In case you are not yet subscribed to our free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:

http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Please always consider the risk of trading and that past performance cannot be taken indicative for future results.

Good trading,

NeverLossTrading

A Division of Nobel Living, LLC

401 E. Las Olas Blvd. – Suite 1400

Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301

July 23, 2014 at 12:09 pm Leave a comment

A Winning Business Plan for Your Trading Success

A video recording was actually not part of the offering at the OnlineTraderCentral presentation; however, we always produce a copy to improve on content and presentation style. By your popular demand and by us putting the customer first, we decided to publish this recording on YouTube. Take one hour of your time, the presentation is filled with content and most likely the video will not be up forever.

Here it the link:

Presentation Summary: Have a high probability trading system, follow the system, financial plan your success and achieve it.
In our feature upcoming feature presentation, we share how to business plan your trading/investing success and invite you to follow the principle.

A business plan is a formal statement of a set of business goals compromised by a financial plan and action plan.

Good trading,

Thomas

July 17, 2014 at 10:57 am Leave a comment

Night Time Trading

Sleepless in Seattle; awake at the lake?

Take a Crude Oil Futures Trade!

Every night (east coast standard), predictable price moves are happening.

Why?

The same institutional players enter the arena and leave their footprints.

How about following them?

Would you be able to buy when the chart says so and to sell when it point this out?

Crude Oil Futures July 11, 2014 (live today)

Crude Oil Overnight Chart

However; what if you cannot be awake at this time?

Don’t worry, there are plenty of other time based happenings, you can read and follow with the NeverLossTrading concept, helping you to answer:

  • What time-frames can I and do I want to trade?
  • Which instruments do I want to trade/Invest in?
  • How will I administer my trades (entries, exits) and strive for continues improvement?
  • What alternatives do I have; how to appraise those and choose the best fitting for me?

In trading, one size or style does not fit all: This is why we customize our mentorships and help you to find what suits you best:

  • Day Trading or Swing Trading
  • Stocks, Options, Futures or Forex
  • High frequent trading or high precision setups.
  • Beginner or advanced levels, while we always give you the chance to upgrade.

Experience, how it can all fit together for you: Schedule your personal consulting hour, aiming to find how NeverLossTrading mentorships are there for helping you to reach your personal and financial goals.

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are not yet part of our communication network, sign up for our free trading tips and reports: http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Good trading,

Thomas

 

 

 

 

July 11, 2014 at 9:01 am Leave a comment

Budget Your Trading Success

Formulate your goals and it is easier to reach them.

A Budget is an estimation of income and expenses over a specified future period of time.

Do you have a budget in place as a trader or private investor, giving you a set of goals compromised by a financial plan and action plan, formulating:

A)   The reasons your goals are believed to be attainable:

85% of all financial markets are dominated by institutional investors. Learn how to spot and follow institutional money moves right from your chart: Our software is painting the pictured for you.

NLFX Top Line Chart

B)   Action steps to be taken for reaching those goals:

Learn to trade at key reference time frames, with focus assets, where it is easier to only trade when the odd are in your favor.

C)   Financial return on investment statement for specified time periods and resources needed to reach those goals:

How much can you or do you want to invest or risk in one trade? Get a feel for a potential return on risk and how a financial plan for your trading shall look like for different assets and time periods.

If you have all this in place, you are set and done, if this is not the case, you have two choices: Start from the scratch and build it all up on your own (took us 30 years and 30,000 hours) or experience budget planning as a pre-stage of the NeverLossTrading mentorships:

Together with you, we formulate trading/investing goals for you to strive for; showing you the implications of trading different instruments in relation to risk and potential return expectations.

“If you don’t know where to go, you might not get there”. 

To turn you into a successful trader, the following questions shall be answered:

  • What time-frames can I and do I want to trade
  •  Which instruments do I want to trade/Invest in?
  • How will I administer my trades (entries, exits) and strive for continues improvement?
  • What alternatives do I have; how to appraise those and chose the best fitting for me?

In trading, one size or style does not fit all: This is why we customize our mentorships and help you to find what suits you best:

  • Day Trading or Swing Trading
  • Stocks, Options, Futures or Forex
  • High frequent trading or high precision setups.
  • Beginner or advanced levels, while we always give you the chance to upgrade.

Those choices drastically influence your base of learning, your actions and your financial possibilities.

Experience, how it can all fit together for you: Schedule your personal consulting hour, aiming to find how NeverLossTrading mentorships are there for helping you to reach your personal and financial goals.

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are not yet part of our communication network, sign up for our free trading tips and reports: http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Good trading,

Thomas

July 8, 2014 at 7:24 am Leave a comment

Your Trading Needs a Business Plan

What is the difference between a trading plan and a business plan for trading?

  • A trading plan answers you what to do when, following a trading system.
  • A business plan for trading lets you calculate the financial implications, giving you a clear idea what you are aiming for with your set capital and your set trading style.

Unfortunately, most traders never calculate the financial implications of their doing and with this never get to their goals or achieve being independent as a trader.

Make a change and reach your goals:

A business plan is a formal statement of a set of business goals compromised by a financial plan and action plan. It shall contain:

  • The reasons your goals are believed to be attainable.
  • Action steps to be taken for reaching those goals.
  • Background information about the resources needed to reach those goals.
  • Financial return on investment statement for specified time periods.

Do you have such in place as a trader or private investor?

Mostly, this is not the case and so we are sharing the action steps and start out with the Financial Plan; based on the money, we then produce the required action plan.

How much money do you want to make trading/investing?

As much as possible is not the right answer:

“If you don’t know where to go, you might not get there”. 

To establish and follow a business plan all starts out by having a trading system, which gives you answers to the following questions.

  • What time-frames can I and do I want to trade?
  • Which instruments do I want to trade/Invest in?
  • How will I administer my trades (entries, exits) and strive for continues improvement?
  • What alternatives do I have; how to appraise those and chose the best fitting for me?

A good trading system helps you to find swing points with clearly defined entries and exits. NeverLossTrading has developed algorithms which record and report institutional money moves. When you spot one of those, you just follow the institutional action and you trade where the money flows.

Example: Crude Oil, 30-min. on NeverLossTrading IncomeGenerator (on a price promotion).

IncomeGenerator Crude Oil Example

With the help of multiple real-time indicators, trade situations are spelled out: Entries, stops, targets. Assume that you get at least two out of three trades right, what will be the financial result and how will this be, if you get three out of four- or even five out of six right?

Either put such calculation scheme together on your own, or contact us, a trusted trading education institution. Our aim is to help you to achieve your goals as day trader, swing traders or a combination of both.

contact@NeverLossTrading.com or call: +1 866 455 4520 (schedule a personal consultation hour).

Be certain: You are in need of a financial plan that fits your personal risk tolerance and produces a projected income statement, showing you the implications of trading various instruments: Stocks, Options, Futures, Forex-Pairs in various position sizes.

Many traders always trade the same lot-size. To be financially sound, you need to adjust your lot size with the help of an instrument that:

  • Evaluates the probability of a trade setup in relation to the risk to take.
  • Adjusts the lot size trade by trade, increasing when the odds are in your favor

Odds and Position Sizing

From there, you build your financial statement and this is how it can look like:

Business Planning Model

When you know where to go and you have the right system in place, you have a high probability to get there!

Learn to be a high probability trader: Make a difference to your trading:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com or call: +1 866 455 4520

Schedule a personal consultation hour, to find the system that suits your best.

If you are not yet part of our communication network, sign up for our free trading tips and reports: http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Good trading,

Thomas

June 28, 2014 at 12:17 pm Leave a comment

Three Months Stock Market Outlook to October 2014

The stock markets remain strong and upwards grinding. The VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options, is grinding towards the 10 year low level of $9.39, which we had in December of 2006.

Let us take a look how VIX on an NLT-Chart with multiple indicators:

VIX Historic Curve

The chart shows:

  • VIX on a six month low.
  • A major resistance area at a VIX level of $12.80 to $13.80
  • Key turning points were indicated by NLT Signals
  • The historic line for July expects rather a VIX drop.

Let us take a look, how the markets behaved in in July of 2006 forward to find which indicators helped us the most to find key turning points:

 

SPY Price Development 2006

Chart observation:

  • Key turning points happen at NLT Light Tower Signals.
  • Dark Green signals allow for a potential early entry, however, key support and resistance levels of NLT Box Lines and Purple Zones need to be respected.
  • Swing points show highlighted institutional volume bars.
  • After a stronger move, we find a period of sideways grinding market prices.
  • When NLT Price Breakout Zones are surpassed (Cyan Zone), trends develop, until they are passed whip saw price action is dominant.

Back to today’s SPY chart:

SPY Price Projection October 2014

Chart summary:

  • SPY is way above the historic trend.
  • When the Cyan Zone was left, as strong trend developed and a new cyan zone was not formed yet.
  • When you compare peak and valley of the historic curve, you see that we are entering into a period of strength as we did it in 2006.

Trade Summary:
Trade for shorter time frames now and catch trends-in-the-trend and position trade when the next major NLT Light Tower move occurs.

Our charts have lots of information, in particular, when overlaying three trading systems as in the chart above. What you see is:

NLT Top-Line: Blue, red and orange signals.

NLT HF-Trading: Dark-Green and light-green signals.

NLT Price-Breakout-Zone: Cyan color zone.

Each of those systems can be traded independent, while our professional traders prefer to us them all an added them sequential.

If you want to learn trading with our high probability system, schedule a personal consulting hour:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com or call +1 866 455 4520

To receive our FREE trading tips subscribe: http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Good trading,

Thomas

June 21, 2014 at 11:53 am Leave a comment

Is the Stock Market Overbought?

Printing $1,900 for the S&P 500 Index, this question strongly arises. Prior to answering it, let us find some background what Overbought means:

It describes a situation, in which the demand for a certain asset pushes the price to a level where it is attractive for the current shareholders to sell out of the asset. By the initiation of an increased supply, prices drop drastically; triggering stop levels set by other shareholders, which results in an additional supply and prices drop further until a balance between buyers and sellers is found.

For measuring overbought or oversold situations, two technical indicators are commonly used:

Indicator-1:     The Stochastic Indicator, developed by George C. Lane in the late 1950s. Bullish and bearish divergences in the Stochastic Oscillator are used to foreshadow reversals.

Indicator-2:     RSI (Relative Strength Indicator); developed by J. Welles Wilder and published in a 1978, which compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions for an asset.

However, by our experience those indicators carry a high risk of a wrong interpretation for the price move of an asset. Surely, every once-in-a-while you win and such, they are giving you a false sense of security.

At the end of the day, there is no such situation as overbought or oversold. Get rid of this concept entirely:

“Stock prices can go as high or low as they want to go”.

Over 30-years of working with technical analysis, we surely used Stochastic- or RSI indicators and developed a version of each, which signals potential price turns; however, we do not use them, because those indicators are producing signals with a random probability for success.

Graphic-1: SPY Price Development with Stochastic Oscillator and NLT Signals

Stochastis and NLT Buy Sell Signals

Graphic-1 shows the total opposite market readings and actions of the Stochastic Oscillator (lower study) and the NeverLossTrading systems: TradeColors.com and NLT Price Breakout Concept.

  • TradeColors.com is our intro system to algorithmic trading, where you trade after the high/low of a two-candle-color-sequence is surpassed in the next candle.
  • The NLT Price Breakout Concept indicates with black arrows when the price breaks long-term support or resistance (cyan zone) and you trade along with the price breakout.

In essence: Had you bought or sold SPY based on the Stochastic Indicator, you would be stopped in both instances, while the NLT systems lead you in the right direction.

When you trade, you are making an assumption for the future price development of an asset. In helping you doing so, we share multiple systems:

NeverLossTrading Top-Line and HF-Trading are for the pro trader. For allowing you to enter the market with a more budget system, we are re-launching two of our concepts in an updated and modernized version:

The original concepts were developed based on Java-2008, where trade indications were found by the alignment of multiple arrows from three lower studies. To ease your chart reading, we compromised the lower studies into one: The NeverLossTrading Balance of Power Indicator, which is highlighting when buyers are in charge of the price action: Blue bars and sellers by red bars. Changes in command between buyers and sellers lead to a print of buy or sell signal, which are either confirming or adding to the powerful swing point signal plotted on the price chart:

Graphic-2: SPY NLT WealthBuilder Chart

WealthBuilder Chart SPY Example

A trade is only initiated when the high of a buy signal carrying candle or the low of a sell signal candle is surpassed in the price development of the next candle.

Working with such graphically displayed price predictions will surely support your trading decisions. For keeping you engaged in the market, we are offering an alert service, which identifies assets with the favored chart setup: NLT WealthBuilder Alert.

For allowing you an easy entry into the world of high probability trading, we are offering a steep discount on the NLT WealthBuilding and NLT Income Generating systems (not published on the internet and only granted in a personal consulting session).

In addition: If you later want to upgrade to one of our professional systems: 50% of your tuition payment will be considered.

However: Our teaching capacities are limited.

To be part of this, schedule a consultation: contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are rather interested in day trading: NLT Income Generator is the concept for you, using the same indicators while your teaching and documentation is focused on the asset classes, you prefer to trade.

Graphic-3: Crude Oil Futures traded with the NLT Income Generator Concept: Seven wins, one loss.

IncomeGenerator Crude Oil Example

Regulated by SEC, we surely want to make you aware that there is a risk in trading and past performance cannot always be taken indicative for future results.

Learn NeverLossTrading: Schedule a personal consultation without obligation:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Our answer to the question: Is the Stock Market Overbought?

  •  There is not such situation as overbought or oversold.
  •  Use a high probability indicator system that does not base decisions on overbought or oversold interpretations.
  • Find and trade assets with institutional attention: NLT Alerts
  • Have strategies in place to trade the markets to the up- and downside from any account.

The investment that pays the highest return is the investment in you: http://NeverLossTrading.com

May 13, 2014 at 4:38 am Leave a comment

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