Stock Trading Opportunity on FFIV for October 20, 2014

Check out the chart and write up below to find a Bottom Reversal Opportunity on FFIV.

NeverLossTrading HF-Stock Trading Chart (only trade, when the price threshold is surpassed)

FFIV on the NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart

The NLT Alert Scanners gave us a signal for a bottom reversal on FFIV:

Entry Price Level and Outlook

We only want to consider a long opportunity when the spelled out price threshold > $114.51 is surpassed. By our algorithm based calculation the buy-stop entry is at $114.61. If the price of FFIV does not get there, we do not accept the trade.

Only when the price for FFIV will reach $114.61, we have our confirmation that other market participants support the institutional move our scanners found.

The Purple-Line identifies the price development of the past five years and indicates that we are entering a time period, where FFIV shows a strong price development.

If the trade realizes, the expected time in the trade is about five days, maximum 8 days, watching out for the earnings announcement on 10/29/2014. If you want to hold the position over earnings, find a form of protection.

Target Price

The algorithm based target price is at: $118.84

Entry to Exit: $118.84 – $114.61 = $4.23 (return on target: 3.7%)

Stop or Trade Adjustment Level

In case the trade does not perform as expected, take action at: $110.79 (risk of 3.3%)

Alternative Way to Trade this FFIV Chart Setup:

Sell the September 2014, $105 Put for a premium of $2.40 (2.1% return in 34 days, 22.2% annual). The probability for the keeping the premium is calculated at 71%.

All the data mentioned above get supplied by subscribing to:  http://neverlosstrading.com/Stock_Trader_Alert.html

Good trading,

Thomas

www.NeverLossTrading.com

October 18, 2014 at 3:04 pm Leave a comment

Learn to Trade, It Is Never Too Late

Make trading your own business:

Trading is a professional business; professional traders have their support- and control network, assisting them to strive for success. NeverLossTrading aims to replicate the same level of support and information for you, regardless if you are as a full-time or part-time trader or investor:

  • The Trader makes the decisions and produces performance relying on his system.
  • Analysts prepare the trader with information and details.
  • The Back Office follows up on the orders and provides statistics
  • The Risk Manager provides guidelines for the maximum risk to accept and lot size to trade.

Find this all include in NeverLossTrading Mentorhsip:

NeverLossTrading Industrial Sector on the NLT Top-Line Chart

Industrial Sectro with NLT Top-Line Signals

Download your free report to experience how all those elements are considered and work together in a complete trading system….click here.

Find out why trading or investing is one of the easiest solutions for a home based business. Check our newly published Kindle Book: Your Trading Career as a Private Investor by Thomas Barmann.

This book (available at Amazon for stunning $2.99) is for you, if you aim to produce constant income and long-term wealth from trading or investing. The difference between trading and investing lies in the perspective of time: Investors usually take a longer-term perspective to buy and hold their investments, while traders focus on shorter-term results. If you learn how to participate in the up- and down moves of the financial markets, you will start to invest more frequently and turn yourself into a trader.

Trading is a professional business and it requires preparation: Those, who take the other side of your orders are prepared to make money. Are you?

Unfortunately, most of what we learned in life is rather a hindrance to progress in trading: Good work ethic for example – We start to work when the office day starts and work to the end – and feel good about what we have done. However, we better not start to trade when the market opens and trade to the end: We only trade when we have a signal and the odds are in our favor. Our account statement tells us if we can feel good about what we accomplished. Let this book guide you to a new perspective of trading or investing.

Prepare yourself for a part-time or full-time trading career; follow our step-by-step guide and insights, how to start and operate your trading business.

To connect you with real-trading-world of this decade, we introduce you to the principles, methods, and strategies of Spotting and Following Institutional Money Moves by Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction.

This book is for readers without prior knowledge or for those, who want to take trading or investing to the next level: Trading is a professional business; professionals are prepared; amateurs pay professionals to be part of their game. Which side of the trade do you want to take?

If you are ready for a NeverLossTrading mentorship:

Call 866 455 4520 or contact@neverlosstrading.com and schedule your personal consulting hour.

If you are not yet part of our information network: Sing up for our free reports and webinars….click here.

Learn to trade, it is never too late,

Thomas

NeverLossTrading

401 E. Las Olas Blvd. – Suite 1400

Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301

September 27, 2014 at 5:22 pm Leave a comment

Invitation: Free Trading Education Mega-Event [includes recording]

Do you have an Individual, Structured Way to Trading Success?

NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart

AAPL Alternating Price Move

If your answer is yes, and you are making all the money, you want to earn from the financial markets, do not read further; else, accept our invitation to a Free Trading Education Mega-Event [includes recording, only if you register]:

Registration Link: http://webinar.tradingpub.com/24hrwfpop/?is=nltr&email

I am excited to announce that my good friends at the TradingPub have asked me to present at their upcoming Trade-A-Thon next Thursday, September 18, 2014.

My topic will be “A Structured Way to Trading Success” and I am scheduled to present from 3:30-4:45 p.m. eastern time.

Tap Here to Secure Your Spot (includes recording)

I will also be joined by 12 other industry pros that will be covering a full range of trading topics including:

  • Powerful Options Setups
  • Futures Trading Techniques
  • Intra-day and Swing Trading the Stock Market
  • Forex Trading Strategies
  • Nadex Binary Options Opportunities
  • And much more …

Register for the Trade-A-Thon and Recording Here

Don’t miss this unique opportunity to join me, and twelve other great traders, at this one-of-a-kind trading education mega-event.

And if for some reason you cannot attend all or part of this terrific event, it will be recorded and sent out to everyone one that registers.

I look forward to seeing you next Thursday.

If you want to learn how to trade with institutional sector rotations, you have two chances:

Schedule a free consulting hour, where you can see our screens; we answer your questions and propose the fitting NLT Mentorship to you:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Call: +1 866 455 4520 

Or:

Sign up for NLT Alerts: Either for NLT Day Trader Alerts or NLT Stock Trader Alerts.

In case, none of these solutions is for you at this time; however, you want to stay in touch and receive free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:

http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Please always consider the risk of trading and that past performance cannot be taken indicative for future results.

Thomas Barmann

Never Loss Trading

September 13, 2014 at 4:40 pm Leave a comment

Trading or Investing in Sector Rotations

The serious private investor considers or follows Stock Market Sector Rotations, where institutional money flows in or out of one sector and either into another asset class: Commodities, Treasuries, Currencies or into a different industrial sector.

Graph-1: Sector Rotation in the Real Estate Sector (Home Builders)

Sector Rotation Home Builders

The NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart, from the left to the right, shows an outflow of money, started with two strong sell signals on July 7, 2014. This price move brought the value of home builder stocks down by about 12% (framed in red). With a strong buy signal on August 8, 2014 an inflow of money started the demand for home builder stocks increased the share value by 7%.

Reporting such sector rotations is part of the NeverLossTrading Alerts:

This is where day traders, swing traders and long-term investors get informed about major changes in supply and demand of institutional investors.

Observed assets are: Stocks, stocks with favorable option setups, Futures, FOREX.

How to segment the stock market and find sector rotations?

Stock market indexes are a great source for leading stocks in industrial sectors:

The DOW considers 30 different industrial sectors. Each sector is represented by one leading company. For trading or investing into sector rotations the S&P 500 is the much better choice, best segmented into the following:

Graph-2: Industrial Sectors of the S&P 500: Share by Market Capitalization per Sector

Industrial Sectro with NLT Top-Line Signals
Graph-2: Information Technology is the strongest S&P 500 sector, followed by Financials and Healthcare. If we put the two consumer sectors: Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary together, the consumer sector appears to be dominant. The last 10% of the sector representation is cut into smaller segments, allowing the investor to leverage on the impact of a bigger money inflow or outflow as shown in Graph-1.

If you knew about those sector rotations, how would you take advantage of your knowledge?

As shown in Graph-1, sector rotations allow you to trade on money outflow (downside) and money inflow (upside). Hence, you need to know how to participate in both market directions: In case you are trading with an IRA account or an account with less than $25,000 holdings (SEC regulation), you cannot short stocks; however, you can use Put-Option strategies. Those strategies and much more are taught in the NeverLossTrading Mentorships, tailor made to your individual trading and investing needs.

Let us take a look, how the NeverLossTrading Alerts tell you about sector rotations. For our examples, we are taking the Information Technology Sector with NLT Top-Line and NLT HF-Signals.

Graph-3: Information Technology with NLT Top-Line Signals July 15 – August 11, 2014

Information Technology Sector

Graph Summary: At the blue buy- and the red sell-signal, the target price is marked by a dot:

  • On the buy signal, it took us seven bars to come to target.
  • The sell signal took 5 days to come to target.

The average expected time per trade after a NLT signal was confirmed is one to five bars, maximum 10 bars, independent from the time frame you took your signal from.

NLT Top-Line is for the trader, who wants to trade at strong supply/demand changes.

If you prefer to trade more frequently, NLT HF Stock Trading and NLT HF Day Trading systems are for you, producing in average 3-5 times more signals per time unit observed than NLT Top-Line.

Professional NLT traders like to combine the two systems for the highest participation rate. In any case, we support you by publishing both signals on our NLT Alerts and learn how to participate in sector rotations by stock and option strategies, to leverage and protect trade positions.

In the following example, you find NLT HF-Signals in three different colors:

  • Dark-Green: Institutional triggered price-momentum change and statistical volatility increase.
  • Light-Green: Volume differential change with price direction approximation.
  • Pink-Signal: Potential top and bottom finder.

Graph-4: Information Technology with NLT HF-Signals July 24 to August 22, 2014

Information Technology Sector on NLT HF Chart

If you want to learn how to trade with institutional sector rotations, you have two chances:

Schedule a free consulting hour, where you can see our screens; we answer your questions and propose the fitting NLT Mentorship to you:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Call: +1 866 455 4520

Or:

Sign up for NLT Alerts: Either for NLT Day Trader Alerts or NLT Stock Trader Alerts.

In case, none of these solutions is for you at this time; however, you want to stay in touch and receive free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:

http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Please always consider the risk of trading and that past performance cannot be taken indicative for future results.

Good trading,

Thomas

September 6, 2014 at 3:47 pm Leave a comment

How to Trade with the Odds in Your Favor

Many private traders like the exciting environment of trading the financial markets. Trading can be a wonderful hobby. For hobbies, we like to spend money and this is usually what happens; however, if you want to take trading and investing serious, you need to start being a probability thinker: Understanding how probable it is for you in a string of investments to make money following clearly defined trading or investing guidelines.

What are your odds of making money?

Before we help you to answer this question, let us reiterate some prerequisites of trading success:

  • Have a system.
  • Be disciplines and follow the system.
  • Trade only, when the odds are in your favor

Example: NeverLossTrading Top Line Chart for FAS

FAS NLT Top-Line Chart

At this NeverLossTrading example, you only trade when the price development of the candle following the trade initiation candle (situations marked with numbers) surpasses the spelled out price threshold: Buy>$101.10 for example. Summary: The price of the next candle has to move higher to validate the entry proposal. The trade target is pre-calculated and either marked with a dot on the chart or by a horizontal NLT Price Gravitation Line. The red line on the chart: NLT Double Decker Line allows for trailing your stop.

To calculate or evaluate the odds of the trade situation, we run a quick appraisal for the three trade situations, which all have a high probability trade setup at the chart constellation:

Situation-1: Risky, by having a substantially higher risk than reward: Stop at the high of the candle.

Situaiton-2: Favorable setup. Stop at the low of the candle, with a higher reward than risk.

Situaiton-3: Favorable setup. Stop at the low of the candle, with a higher reward than risk.

However, if your trading system does not portrait entries, exits, and stops, what do you do?

A simple way of calculating the odds of a trade setup is:

Probability of the Trade Setup (past performance) x Reward / (Risk x Probability of Failing)

At this point, note the Golden Rule of Trading Success:

The factor of this calculation shall be above 1.5-points.

Example-1: Probability for success of the trade setup (from history): 65%, with a risk of $1 and a reward of $1. The calculated factor comes to 1.94; thus, it is above 1.5 and tells you that you found a trade setup where the odds in your favor according to our Golden Rule.

Example-2: Probability for the trade setup: 58%, with a risk of $1 and a reward of $1. The calculated factor comes to 1.38 and is below 1.5 telling you that the odds of the trade setup evaluated are NOT in your favor.

When it is that easy, why do most private investors fail to achieve their financial goals?

Our answer: Most private investors or traders use trading systems, which are either random or produce a probability for success between 53% – 57% where the factor < 1.5. Examples are:

  • Moving average based indicators: MACD, Bollinger Bands, RSI, CCI…
  • Candle setups: Doji, Harami, Hangman…
  • Long-term patterns: Head and Shoulder, Cup and Handle…

We tested and programmed all of those setups and many others. For traders who sign up for our program, we always offer to parallel-program the trade situation, you based your decision on and then we compare.

In addition, most standard indicators are lagging and propose entries when the major price move is close to over; providing you a trade-setup where the risk is mostly higher than the reward; bringing you into a circle-of-doom-pattern: Small gain, small gain, big loss.

This is where NeverLossTrading systems make a difference.

  1.  You trade at major swing points of institutional supply and demand shifts.

 

E-Mini S&P 500 Daily Chart with NLT Top-Line Indicators

SPY Top Line Chart

  1. By the support of calculation tables, you get your trade situation appraised, calculating the likelihood for success, potential risk and reward, with a proposal for the position sizing.

NeverLossTrading Evaluation Model

Odds Ratio and Position Sizing GS

  1. Critical for the private investor is to know about trading opportunities. Choosing from 40,000 US-traded stocks is not easy. With NeverLossTrading, you can always stay engaged in the market, by either scanning the for favorable trade setups, using NLT Top-Line integrated market scanners or by subscribing to the NLT Alerts (free for three months with a mentorship).

Scan for Your Trading Opportunities or Subscribe to our NLT Alert Service

NLT Report Example

In the NeverLossTrading Mentorship, you further experience:

  • Individual training units, fit to your personal wants and needs (all recorded)
  • 200-page documentation for easy access to key information.
  • Six month of mentorship with trade feedback and further education.
  • All software installed for you. The license fee paid off with the initial tuition.
  • Real time data on a server based programming, available from every computer.
  • Data feed from a free platform with no need to change your broker relationships.

All for helping you to develop yourself into the trader, you want to be!

Several NeverLossTrading Mentorships are offered, which support Day Traders, Swing Traders, and Long-Term Investors.

Take the chance and test us live. Schedule a free consulting hour, where we get together online with you, share our screens and answer your questions:

contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Call: +1 866 455 4520

In case you are not yet subscribed to our free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:

http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Please always consider the risk of trading and that past performance cannot be taken indicative for future results.

Good trading,

Thomas

August 23, 2014 at 2:10 pm Leave a comment

Trading is a Professional Business and Professionals Make Money with What They Do

How to make money in the financial markets?

Historically, the stock market was in focus of the private trader. Lately the FOREX market is gaining more and more interest and attracts first time traders by its nature of pure leverage: $2,000 controlling $100,000.

Another market with long-term focus: Metals. For a good while, I met people who shared their opinion about Gold and Silver: “It will always go up”; however, since Gold dropped from $1,700 per oz. to $1,300, those voices got quiet. An even more drastic development in Silver: Dropping form $40 per oz. to $20. You sure remember the hype in Silver: All cellphones and the new tablets; they all need Silver coated connectors. In the new industrial future, a desperate need for this metal was a given. Silver was stated as the most undervalued material of the century and had to sky rocket to more highs after it reached $40 per oz.

As we know now, many if not all of those predictions did not hold true. What can you do?

Our answer: Understand supply and demand patterns and how financial markets work, where assigned market makers provide liquidity and thus an offering at multiple price levels on the bid and ask side of an asset. Some still believe that the market makers live from the penny bid/ask-spread, but when you see the amount of people that receive a paycheck from those companies and the building they reside in, you recognize, there must be something else that fuels their cash account.

How do all those fund managers make money? By the 1% maintenance fee they charge? Surely not, but how does that work, because they hold assets in the value of gazillion dollars from 401(k) and mutual fund investors.

Do yourself a favor and check the income statements of the big prop traders of our today’s world: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclay’s and many more… Even so they perfectly hide their source of income through international corporate balance sheet consolidations, the picture gets clear: A lion share of their income results from trading and not from the basic banking business.

If you bring it all together:

  • There are many institutional participants who produce and income above or beyond what you are making as a private investor.
  • Following publically shared trade opinion’s does not lead to picking the market direction.
  • Fund holders care more about their than your account development.

Conclusion: If you had a way to follow institutional money moves to the up- and downside, you would be better on than you are now.

What to do to get there?

Suggestion: Finding a system, which helps you to identify where institutional money is moving.

Spot and follow Institutional Money Moves with NeverLossTrading

NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart for Gold Futures July 2013 – Aug. 2014

Gold on the NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart

NeverLossTrading systems spot and follow institutional money moves, offering high probability chart setups with defined entries and exits (colored dot on the chart) and stops (red line).

Surely, this also can be done on lower time frames:

NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart for Crude Oil Futures: August 14th and 15th

Crude Oil Win and Loss on the 1-Hour NLT Top-Line Chart

How about stocks?

IBM on the Daily NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart: July to August 15, 2014

IBM on the Daily NeverLossTrading Chart

How about FOREX:

EUR/USD on the NeverLossTrading Daily Top-Line Chart: July to August 15th 2014

Euro to USD on the NLT Daily Chart

Learn more about NeverLossTrading systems … click here.

Take the chance to test us live:

Schedule a free consulting hour and we get together online, share our screens and answer your questions:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

In case you are not yet subscribed to our free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:

http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

Please always consider the risk of trading and that past performance cannot be taken indicative for future results.

Good trading,

NeverLossTrading

A Division of Nobel Living, LLC

401 E. Las Olas Blvd. – Suite 1400

Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301

 

 

Stock Market, FOREX, Market Maker, Futures, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, IBM, Institutional Investors, Never Loss Trading, Trading System, Trader Education, Investor Education,

August 16, 2014 at 3:03 pm Leave a comment

Trading Financial Market Patterns

Price changes in all financial markets: Stock market, Commodities, Currencies, and Treasuries are a pure expression of supply and demand changes.

NLT Top-Line Chart: Sell Signal with a NLT Light Tower Pattern and NLT Lime Line Price Move

Crude Oil Lime Line and Light Tower Pattern 1-2

The chart above contains a clearly defined trade entry, which was confirmed by the next candle surpassing the formulated price threshold: Sell <$99.90. By our algorithm a NLT Light Tower initiated trend (candle with a cyan dot, signifying key changes in institutional supply and demand patterns) has a high probability (74%) to end in a NLT Light Tower, when using a 1-hour time frame. In addition, we find high predictability for price moves from one to the next NLT Lime Line (Quant based price levels).

As an investor (longer-term perspective) or trader (short-term perspective), your key challenge is to find swing points where a shift between supply and demand takes place.

In my early trading years, I got introduced to Moving Averages; today still key TV channels characterize the sentiment of an asset by their price position in relation to the 200-day and 50-day moving average. This for sure gives a chart reading; however, years back when writing an algorithm and taking charge at moving average based price turning points, such system turned out to be a pure gamble with a low probability for success. Imagine, if knowing the price position of an asset in relation to two moving averages would be enough to make a living from trading: Then nobody would ever go to work.

How else to capture shifts in supply and demand patterns?

Historically, technical analysis is used to predict a future happening on the price chart. The first technical analysis is reaching back to the 1600’s, when “Japanese Candle Sticks” started their development in tracking historic price moves to predict the price moves to come. Since then, there is an understanding that in traders are trying to gauge the depth to produce a high or low breakout of the price direction. When this is happening, usually the crowd follows the leaders and this is what we portrait on the chart in our 21st century algorithmic trading systems. They are related to the base understanding of the 1600’ but fit today’s market requirements.

This is how NeverLossTrading records and portraits changes in price move patterns.

Pricing Model NLT

NLT offers various systems for day traders, swing traders and long-term investors, taught in individual session to custom fit your personal wants and needs. For more information on our most favored mentorship, click the hyperlink on: NeverLossTrading Top-Line, a system for the high probability day trader, swing trader and long-term investor.

Another Example for Crude Oil Futures on the NLT 1-Hour Top-Line Chart

Crude Oil Lime Line and Light Tower Pattern2-2

Again, you find the same formation: What begins in an NLT Light Tower signal ends in a NLT Light Tower Signal: Trend initiation and trend exhaustion patterns, triggered by a change in institutional supply and demand: Price moves from NLT Lime Line to Lime Line.

Click here to learn more about NeverLossTrading Top-Line.

Feel free to schedule a private consulting hour:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@neverlosstrading.com

In case you are not yet subscribed to our free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:
http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html 

We are looking forward to hearing back from you.

Good trading,

Thomas

August 9, 2014 at 1:05 pm 1 comment

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