High Probability Trade Setups

By institutional investors dominating all financial markets, our computers and programs help us to identify price constellations, which lead to a price continuation patterns and we differentiate two major trade patterns:

  • Momentum Trades: Frequent trading for smaller price move increments.
  • Trend Trades: Focusing on following a trend by staying in the trade for a longer period of time.

The first documentations of price constellations, which formulate a pre-stage of a price move, were found in Japanese Candle Stick Patterns: Three white soldiers, harami, Doji constellations.

By our base hypothesis, high probability trade setups are found when a rate of performance above 63% is achieved over a longer set of data and for multiple time frames. When programming and testing candle stick constellations, they lead to a positive expectation but not to the required significant statistical evidence for high probability trade setups and thus did not get considered in our concepts.

The introductory high probability trading concept in the NeverLossTrading series is TradeColors.com:

By a sequence of two same color candles, a price threshold is formulated and when it is surpassed in the third candle, a high probability setup for a price continuation pattern is reached.

The momentum target for this trade is formulated by the Price Move Approximation, which formulates the expected price move from entry.

The stop is set at the high/low of the trade initiation candle (second same color candle).

The entry price level is the high/low of the trade initiation candle ± 2% of the Price Move Approximation. A trade setup is reached, when this threshold is surpassed in the third candle.

For following a trend move, you stay in the trade by trailing the stop below the low of two candles back or until the second opposite color facing candle occurs.

SPY Daily Chart with TradeColors.com Constellations, January – April 2014

SPY Candle Color Price Threshold

The chart shows and measures momentum price developments. In the period between January 15 and April 15, 2014 we had:

  • 6-Winning trades setups (86%).
  • 1-Losing trade setup (14%).

No doubt about it, this is high probability trading.

To support you in finding stocks with two same color candle setups, we developed the NLT Continuation Pattern Alert, where we report those to you at least three times per week. Here is an example of the April 7 report and the stocks that were listed:

TradeColors Win Loss April 7  2014

The TradeColors.com concept shows you how to short such market constellations out of IRA or other cash accounts.

For today, April 15, 2014 the following stocks produced a two candle color constellation:

  • SO: Up for $0.56 or 1.3%
  • COP: Up for $1.06 or 1.5%
  • SBAC: Down for $1.94 or2.2%

When TradeColors.com produces such high probability trade setups, why would one use a different NeverLossTrading concept?

NLT Top-Line and NLT HF-Concepts have a higher productivity rate by giving you earlier entries and a higher participation rate for trades and thus allow for higher and more frequent returns.

With our current TradeColors.com promotion, we first of all give you a $500 discount until the end of April and in addition allow for an easy upgrade to a NeverLossTrading system by discounting the tuition you already paid.

For more information:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Sign up for our trading tips: http://neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html

April 15, 2014 at 7:44 am Leave a comment

Some Hints on Trading Strategies

Lately, I was listening at some multi-speaker events to the presentation of several trading strategies and no wonder that many of you are doubtful in the application of any.

Well known presenters showed strategies, which are very easy to follow and administer: When a certain asset goes comes down 16-ticks, you go long for 32 and you risk five. Charts and an actual trade proofed that this is right and works.

Another one was, when gold moves up or down that much at 6 p.m., you go long or short and then overnight you are making money.

Those are billionaire strategies if they would work and they sell for just $97 from normally $197. It is a must buy for everybody who believes this is doable.

When trading is that easy, we would have already produced an indicator and auto trader which does this all the time for us while we are hanging out at the beach and come home rich.

What will actually happen: You will find out in your account statement what a $97 investment can cost you.

A pro makes money with what the person does. Which profession is there, where you can be a pro by watching one DVD?

Think about what determines the value of a product or service?

  • Some are raw material related, when little work is done to them, like simple jewelry.
  • Many others define their value by the cost of labor involved and skilled labor can drive those prices high, like a car.
  • Others have their value based on the productivity they bring and pay for themselves in either replacing other cost elements or by increasing productivity (throughput) and by that shorten the payback time.

When you consider this, and when you risk $500 per trade, and it does not work out twenty times, you invested $10,000; while you wanted to spend just $97.

The issue is:

“You paid the market and you still have no tools on hand that help your next trade to be more successful”.

Do you want to make a change to your trading?

Consider a NeverLossTrading Mentorship; you will be coached, supported with indicators, concepts, in individual training sessions were we are caring about your trading success.

If you like to experience this in action:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

AAPL Daily Chart:
Learn to use this indicators; trade strategies for stocks, options, futures, Forex;
Position sizing, hedging and leveraging,  continues improvement and so much more.

AAPL Trade Proposal on the NLT HF Chart Join our Mailing List

 

Schedule a Personal Consultation

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLosstrading.com

April 12, 2014 at 12:42 pm Leave a comment

Festival of Traders & Trading Google after the Stock Split

1. You are Invited to the Festival of Traders

Lean powerful trading techniques used by professional traders:

Tuesday April 8 and Wednesday April 9, 2014

4:00 – 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time each day. Use one sign up to enjoy the entire event totally free:

http://www.tigersharktrading.com/2014FOT.htm?src=bar04

The NeverLossTrading presentation is on April 9 at 6:15 p.m. ET

 

2. Making Complicated Matters Simple

What does the Google stock split mean for your trading?

With the stock split on March 27th, the Google share price was roughly halved and from now on, we have two trading tickers with roughly the same numbers of shares exchanged per day.

GOOG: Even so the prior ticker symbol was carried forward; GOOG represents the newly issued Class-C share with no voting rights. As a result, historic data are only reaching back to 3/27/2014.So far, this symbol does not carry weekly options; however, at the basis of monthly options , at our preferred strike prices, GOOG had a 5-times higher option volume than GOOGL this far.

GOOGL: The new issued symbol relates to the prior existing Class-A share with voting rights, which carries all historic data, reaching back to August 2004. Weekly options are issued. So far GOOGL had the lower option volume.

GOOGL 4-Hour NeverLossTrading HF Chart

GOOGL 4-Hour NeverLossTrading HF Chart

If you are a Google shareholder, your account was updated as follows:

Say you held 100 Class-A Google shares. At one vote per share, that entitles you to 100 votes. After the stock split, you now hold 100 Class-A shares with the symbol GOOGL and 100 Class-C shares with the Symbol GOOG. Class-A shares keep their one vote, while Class-C shares have none. So while your number of shares doubled to 200, you still have 100 votes.

A super-voting Google Class B share also exists, however, it does not represent a stock we have to worry about as traders: The Class-B shares secure the control of the Google founders who hold 56% of the voting rights. By now being in the position from now on to only issue Class-C shares with no voting rights, the Google founders basically put a floor to keep the control of the company.

In the trading days since March 27, 2014, both shares showed a unilateral share price development, when we assume this continues, we are acting as follows:

  • For day trading weekly options use GOOGL (all history).
  • For position trading, use monthly options use GOOG (historic date from March 27, 2014 forward).

Sign up for our Trading Tips: http://neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html

April 7, 2014 at 7:25 am Leave a comment

Trading Requires Preparation

In this week’s educational letter, we focus on trade preparation.

Professionals are Prepared – Trading is a Professional Business

A)   Trading Time Table

You trading day opens at 6 p.m. ET (all times mentioned are Eastern Time). Volumes are low at this time; however, there are days, where the market makes an adjustment move in the first 30 minutes after 6 p.m. ET. The next time period to check is: 8:30 p.m. to 11 p.m. After this, the markets usually halter, until they move again around 2:30 a.m. (London Session). All financial markets usually take a rest at 5:30 a.m. and restart at 7 a.m.; with more heavy trading volume until noon. At around 1 p.m. the market participants then decide if they want to confirm the morning direction or not; ending the day at 4:15 p.m., with an extended our session for specific instruments and restarting their day at 6 p.m.

Your second trading time table comes from considering economic news events that pertain to the asset class you are trading: Futures and Forex traders consider an around the clock time table. Find an example at our news section…click here: Major news events are highlighter in red (“High Importance”). The best way to tackle news events as a day trader: Stay out of the market over the event and to re-enter when the market forces found a new directions, which usually takes between 10 to 30 minutes. If you are holding stocks over highly important economic events, stock earnings or news announcements, we recommend protecting against a potential downside risk by adding options.

Stock and option traders usually stick to the US-economic-news, where this weekly calendar gives you a very good overview of the most important events…click here.

B) Prepare for the Assets You want to Trade

There are assets that trade with-, independent from-, and others that trade against the overall market development. This always gives you the opportunity to either go long or short with favorable instruments.

Why does this matter?

Markets or asset prices fall five to eight times faster than they rise and thus short selling strategies should be an essential part of your way of trading.

Trade where markets move: Fish, where the Fish are.

Either Build yourself a scanner, which is in tune with your trade setups or subscribe to a scanning service that provides you with an overview of assets on the move. Sticking strictly to one asset or a limited number of assets, reduces your probability for market participation and compounding interest.

NeverLossTrading Alerts informs you on multiple levels with assets, which showed institutional attention:

C) Approximate the Risk and Minimum Movements to Trade

Calculate the expected price move of an instrument per time unit observed and only trade when the odds are in your favor.

Example: CSCO moves about 11-cents per hour, which is below the minimum price move expectation, we would recommend to trade a stock or option on, even so the stock is highly liquid, exchanging a minimum of 3-million shares per hour. On a daily time frame, the price of the CSCO share moves about $0.33/day and fulfills the minimum requirements for a trade to take.

If you are looking for a high probability trading system …click here and download an overview (PDF), which will explain how to work with defined trade entries and exits, knowing meaningful risk and reward levels, only entering into trades when the odds are in your favor:

Win in the average series of trades, where the individual trade matters less than the overall performance in executing your trading plan, striving for continuous improvement with the help of our mentorship programs.

For more details: Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Be part of our free reports, trading tips and webinars…sing up here.

March 27, 2014 at 12:47 pm Leave a comment

Prepare for Your Trading Success

Why to pair a high probability trading system with mind preparation?

Check this YouTube link to see what a high probability trading system can do for you:

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RzdXeUEU_Q

The following YouTube link helps you to understand how critical mind preparation is for your trading success:

Link: http://youtu.be/HejQImvxst4

One of our key slogans is: Trade what you see, we put the trade entries and exits right on the chart for you; however, it takes a change in mind: To feel, think and trade in probabilities, where the individual win does not matter as much as the cross average gain over multiple trades (20 for example).

AAPL Chart with NeverLossTrading Signals: Only trade if the spelled out price threshold is surpassed: Can you hold this discipline?

AAPL Alternating Price Move

Check out our offering and sign up for our trading tips: http://NeverLossTrading.com

March 24, 2014 at 9:56 am Leave a comment

FREE Presentation and Trade-With-Me Event

We are  excited to announce two online events, you do not want to miss out on:

March 18, 2014 at 6 p.m. ET, NeverLossTrading Trade-With-Me Event!

We share selected assets with institutional money moves and how to trade and protect them.

Participate: Send your symbols and we appraise them on multiple time frames: contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Here is the registration link: http://www.neverlosstrading.com/Webinar_Sign_Up.html

March 19, 2014 at 5 p.m. ET, Rande Howell from Traders State of Mind

Overcoming the Barriers to Your Success in Trading

Success in trading seems like it should be within your grasp. But, despite a strong understanding of the markets and the know-how of trading, that success stays elusive and keeps slipping through your fingers. What do real professional traders know that you don’t?

Both you and the accomplished trader have the same knowledge. The difference is his ability to act in the clutch when capital is at risk.

Do you want to learn how to produce peak performance under pressure? Then please join us for this free webinar.

Here is the registration link: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/469451208

P.S. Just one more thing, even if you can’t make it to the event, go ahead and register. We’re giving everyone that signs up special video access to the recordings.

Hope to see you there!

Thomas

 

March 17, 2014 at 9:15 pm Leave a comment

High Probability Trading Recording

How to find high probability trade setups?

By spotting and following institutional money moves on key reference time frames.

Please find our presentation recording on YouTube:

To participate in our mailings, please subscribe to our trading tips, reports, and webinars:

http://neverlosstrading.com/Reports/FreeReports.html

With Google-Translate, you can select to read our website publication in 80 languages.

Good trading,

NeverLossTrading

 

 

March 13, 2014 at 8:24 am Leave a comment

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