If Trading was Easy…

July 23, 2014 at 12:09 pm Leave a comment

If trading was easy, nobody would ever go to work again.

Just listen to CNBC: Depending where the S&P 500 index stands in relation to the 50-day or 200-day moving average, you know how to go long or short in the markets.

Simple, isn’t it?

This trading algorithm can be programmed and put on the chart in 15 minutes – set and done.

How comes that the vast majority of traders and investors fail when it comes to achieving their financial goals?

Conventional technical analysis is a lagging the real market action and produces high risk, low reward, low probability trading and investing setups. By the time those indicators tell you to buy or sell, the low risk, high reward opportunity has passed and the typical circle of doom starts:

Small win, small win, big loss.

How to prevent this?

Focus on supply and demand patterns:

All institutional buying and selling goes through the market makers. They recognize a higher demand or supply and change their price offer immediately; this is where you want to pick up your trade: At points where the supply and demand levels moved the price for the first increment that others or all market participants recognize that something is going on.

The crowd follows the leader. When more participants enter with buy or sell orders, this is when you want to trade, specifically when you can approximate how far the market pressure can carry the trade. We use what we call the SPU (Speed Unit) measure for this exercise; giving you clear cut entry and exit prices at the beginning of every trade. The next challenge is to find your stop level: Best slightly outside the price range so you allow the asset price to move to target without triggering the stop.

On this basis, we built the NeverLossTrading pricing or decision making model:

Institutional Money Moves Put into an Algorithm by NeverLossTrading

Pricing Model NLT

When do you trade?

When the odds are in your favor; not when it is 9:30 a.m. ET:

Probability of the Trade Setup (past performance) * Reward/ (Risk*Probability of Failing) > 1.5

If your current trading system does not give you the answer to those questions and you are not making the desired income, you might want to ask yourself, why repeating the same pattern should give you different results?

Depending on the time and frequency you can dedicate to trading or investing, NeverLossTrading developed various programs for day trading, swing trading and long-term investing; helping you to spot and follow institutional money moves.

Today, July 23, 2014, we choose a Crude Oil Futures Chart and with a 1-Hour Time Frame, where signals from NLT HF-Day Trading and NLT Top-Line indicate directional price moves.

According to the pricing model sown above, signals are only to be considered, when the next candle surpasses the set price threshold.

In the upcoming example, you will see how we calculate the minimum expected price move after confirmed institutional engagement and mark it with a dot on the chart. In addition we show you how we use a quantitative analysis model and put price ranges on the chart where our algorithms foresee institutional engagement, which drives prices from one NLT Lime Line to another.

This example shall also show you the higher complexity to consider in trading. Assuming that everybody can make money by using two moving averages sounds a bit too easy. Indicators like MACD, CCI, Bollinger Bands, and many others are one way or the other moving average based and most likely will not get you where you want to be.

Hence, trading is not easy, cannot be learned in 1-hour and needs a lot of dedication and effort for every trader to get where you want to be. NeverLossTrading is here to support you!

Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart with NLT HF and NLT Top-Line Signals

Crude Oil Lime Line Trade

The chart above has multiple layers of information from the left to the right you see:

  1. Purple Zone: A special indicator showing ambiguity. Usually after a zone of ambiguity a directional price move happens after the spelled out price threshold is surprassed.
  2. Red signal to short Crude Oil (NLT Top-Line signal). The signal was confirmed by the next candle ticking out the low and a directional move happened.
  3. Purple Sell Signal (confirmed). A directional price moves is happening and we can trade along taking our target either at the marked dot on the chart or at the NLT Lime Line.
  4. NLT Lime-Lines derive from the Quant Theory, where you estimate price levels where institutions rather buy when the price stays above them or sell when the price falls below.
  5. Light-Green NLT HF-Signal, indicating institutional engagement spotted by a volume differential algorithm.
  6. Pink NLT HF-Signal marking a potential turn around point, from where the price could even go to the satellite NLT Lime Line and did.
  7. Blue NLT Top-Line Buy Signals (confirmed), with target at the blue dot or NLT Lime-Line.
  8. Purple Signal (confirmed) with a target either at the dot or at the NLT Lime Line.

At times, we are asked if a new trader can test run our systems.

Our answer is twofold:

Yes, we are happy to give you an online demonstration, where you call the symbols and time frames and we show you how the system performs, counting good trades and bad trades.

No, in consideration that we cannot provide a free software installation: We need four to six hours of programming. In addition, you will need about 20-hours of training (mostly catered in 2-hour session, individually recorded, focused on your specific wants and needs) to put you in the position for trading NLT HF or NLT Top-Line to the given rules and specifications.

Take the chance to test us live. Schedule a free consulting hour, where we get together online, share our screens with you and answer your questions:


Call: +1 866 455 4520

This will also give you a glimpse, how you can develop yourself into the trader you want to be.

In case you are not yet subscribed to our free trading tips and market reports, sign up here:


Please always consider the risk of trading and that past performance cannot be taken indicative for future results.

Good trading,


A Division of Nobel Living, LLC

401 E. Las Olas Blvd. – Suite 1400

Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301

Entry filed under: Algorithmic Trading, Day Trading, Institutional Money Move, Investor Education, long-term investing, Price Prediction, S&P 500, Stock Market, Stock Trading, Swing Trading, Technical Analysis, Trading, Trading Education, Trading Success. Tags: , , , , , , , .

A Winning Business Plan for Your Trading Success How Traders and Investors can Stay Engaged in the Financial Markets

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