Posts filed under ‘odd appraisal in trading’

How to Decide When to Trade or Invest

Is fundamental analysis the basis of your decision making? Are you in the position to outsmart the world’s best analysts, working for companies like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan (just to name a few)? Let us be casual, you are most likely not!

As a result, technical analysis is the logical choice.

At this point, we immediately want to bridge over:

Imagine, one of this big institutional investment firms starts an action to collect or distribute an asset. In this case, other asset holders and market participants will recognize the action and either trade with or against what they notice. If you had an indication on hand, that such situation is there, you would be in the position to observe if specific price thresholds are surpassed to trade with a developing directional price move.

Click here to watch the video…click.

Rule Based Trading

This is exactly what we do with the NeverLossTrading concepts. We do not squeeze the real market action into a mathematical formula like moving averages; we measure the action of now and formulate resulting price moves for all asset classes and time-frames and only act:

  • When the directional price move is confirmed.
  • When the odds are in our favor.
  • At pre-formulated entry-, exit, and stop levels.
  • With a plan-B, in case the trade goes wrong.
  • For a pre-formulated maximum time period.

With such system on hand, your chart is telling you, where the momentum and the trend are going and you can act by our key slogan:

Trade What You See! Let the chart tell when to buy or sell.

Chart-1: AAPL Weekly NLT Trend Catching Chart July/August 2017

Reward Risk Time on AAPL Weekly Chart

Chart-1 shows a long-setup at the candle that closed on July 21, 2017 with the following components:

  • Buy>$151.74, if next week’s price development surpasses this threshold.
  • Stop or trade repair (plan-B), if the price drops to $147.20.
  • Exit at target of $157.07 or after three bars (in the example: three weeks).
  • Reward/Risk: 1.3-time the reward to risk (favorable – odds in your favor).

How did we come to predict such price moves?

Prior to a price change, we measure the underlying change in supply and demand and from there:

  • We extrapolate a price point to enter into a directional trade (buy-stop or sell-stop order).
  • Our system pre-formulates the exit point: target.
  • In addition, a stop or trade adjustment level is pre-formulated at entry.

Bringing those components together, we focus on high probability trading with attainment rates >65%, together with the imperative to apply a time-based exit: closing the trade if the expected price target is not reached after 3-bars.

You might say: That sounds like tape-reading and in a way, it is; however, with the most advanced algorithms, real-time data, server technology and vector graphics. A single person could never replicate what our computers can do.

Even so, we specify trading as mechanical as possible; we value the human element:

  • By teaching you pattern recognition and quick observation of key supply and demand levels on the chart.
  • By always trading with a plan-B, allowing you to repair trades instead of taking a stop-loss.

Thus, you are applying algorithmic trading with human interaction: a strong combination.

By teaching one-on-one and by providing longer-term coaching, we focus on your individual wants and needs; helping you to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be.

Chart-2: AAPL 30-Minute NLT Top-Line Chart August 14 – 17, 2017

AAPL 30 Minute NLT Top-Line Chart for August 14 2017

Chart-2 shows, how to trade short-term price developments with a two-tier target setting (the system works the same way for longer-term trades). Aside from placing the stop at the base of the red-line at entry, you can also trail your stop by following the red line, participating in the price-move from the beginning to the end.

To keep this short: If you like to trade long-term or short-term price moves, we can provide you with the system and algorithm that supports your trading style.

We tune our systems, training time and coaching, to fit your individual wants and needs; helping you to turn yourself into the trader or investor, you want to be.

We offer several systems and always teach one-on-one. We are in business since 2008 and dedicate our knowledge, passion and time to those we commit to. If you like to be one of the NeverLossTraders, call us or schedule an individual demonstration at:

+1 800 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

When we work together, it is not only that you learn to read charts by our indicators and patterns, you will experience the following:

  • A business plan for trading success: Financial plan (which return to expect at your best available time) and an action plan (what to do when and how).
  • How to repair trades that go wrong, with the potential to turn losers into winners (this is where our name came from; however, Never Stop Loss Trading was lengthy).
  • How to hedge and leverage your holdings, making the additional income you deserve and prevent draw downs.
  • Trading or investing with multiple strategies and only when the odds are in your favor.
  • Option trading strategies, capturing risk and escalating returns at all asset classes.
  • Clear cut trading plan, with chart-based entries, exits, stop or adjustment levels.
  • Learning at your best available days and times.
  • Coaching until you get independent and free.
  • High probability trading at or above 65% probability for success.
  • Clear cut documentations for every system and trade setup (NLT Tutorials).
  • Recorded learning session for an easy repeat on any device until the learned sits.

This and more is what you find in the NeverLossTrading mentorships.

If you feel, this is for you:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Sign up for our free trading tips, webinars, and reports…click.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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August 21, 2017 at 8:13 am Leave a comment

Recipe for Trading Success

Trading is a numbers game; hence, we recommend for you to calculate in advance the implications of your doing:

Why to risk $525 to make $100?  (We will explain this in more detail)

Sounds logic; however, most traders focus on making $100 regardless of the risk to accept.

Intro Scale and Balance Your Trading

Recently, I participated in a day trading system introduction with the following setup:

  • Risk 8-ticks to produce 2-ticks of income.
  • Reasoning: Operate in a volatility range and harvest on small intra-volatility moves.

The trading room was filled with about 200 people, subscribing and applying to this trading strategy on a daily basis.

Let us do a quick check on the odds of the basic setup: The breakeven point is at a 4:1 win/loss ratio, requiring you to win with a > 80% predictability to produce a zero?

The trade entry was based on Bollinger Bands, RSI and a MACD. By our statistics, those indicators have a 53% to 55% predictability; which in itself shows the challenge to trade at an above 80% attainment rate.

Some indicator based systems claim: overlaying multiple 53% probability indicators a higher precision can be achieved: Mathematically this is not the fact; however, let us assume it is true and the system produces in average five winners on one losing trade what will be the financial expectation considering some of the futures that were traded:

  • /ES: E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
  • /ZB: 30-Year Bond Futures
  • /6E: Euro Futures

Expected Return on Winning Five out of Six Trades, Risking 8-Ticks for a 2-Tick Gain

 

2 Tick Win 8 Tick Risk Comparison 2

The above table shows that only one out of three symbols has a positive expectation: the /ZB and this on a predictability of the price move of 83%. In the last two columns, we show the average expected price move per day of the referring trading instruments and the amount of precision needed to predict those on such a small scale of 2-ticks.

What is this telling you?

Consider and calculate the implications of your system by a feasibility study, telling you the likelihood that you get where you want to be as a trader or investor.

When you learn trading with us, we put an end to this: We introduce you to systems that have a ≥ 65% predictability and you only trade with the odds in your favor and you adjust your position size based on the odds evaluation of each trade setup.

In addition, you will learn to follow a business plan for trading success:

  • Financial plan (return expectation and risk per setup).
  • Action plan (what to do, when and how: includes a trade adjustment strategy).

Overview Table of an Odds Appraised Position Sizing Model

Trend Catchin Position Sizing Model

The above table tells you: By your system defined entry, exit, and stop, the odds are in your favor and you bets invest into 0.50-Lot for staying in your system described risk agreement.

If you like to see how a fully integrated trading concept helps you to appraise each trade situation right from the chart, with clear cut entries, exits, and stops, register for our upcoming free webinar:

Why You Want a High Probability Trading System

May 10, 2017, 4:30 p.m. EDT….click here to register.

There will not be a recording (proprietary details will be shared). In case you cannot participate, register and we will send you a written summary of the webinar content.

What you will learn at the webinar:

  • How a high probability trading system increases your chance for positive trading results by ≥50%; how and why!
  • How to trade with clearly defined, entries, exits, and stops.
  • The importance of position sizing for producing money from trading long-term.
  • How to build a business plan for your trading success (financial plan and action plan)

If you are serious and dedicated to learn how to operate with a high probability trading system, ask us for a personal demonstration:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

To subscribe to our FREE trading tips, webinars, and reports…click here.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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April 29, 2017 at 9:27 am Leave a comment

What is in Trading for YOU?

Some traders or investors like the excitement of the markets and treat trading as a hobby.

Yes, trading the financial markets: stocks, options, futures, FOREX gives great entertainment; however, if you are seeking trading success, you should watch our 14-minute video, which explains the difficulties and concepts, how to transform yourself into the trader or investor, you want to be!

Video Link expired. 

If you are not yet signed up to our FREE Trading Tips, Webinars, Reports…sign up here.Bag of Marbles Intro

If you like what you see in our video and you are ready to experience how our systems perform live:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are not yet signed up to our FREE Trading Tips, Webinars, Reports…sign up here.

We are training and coaching one-on-one, spots are extremely limited, so do not miss out.

Good trading,

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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April 12, 2017 at 1:56 pm Leave a comment

Invitation to Trading Reality

Are you seeking trading success?

Video and links expired. 

 

If you are not yet signed up to our FREE Trading Tips, Webinars, Reports…sign up here.

Bag of Marbles Intro.png

If you like what you see in our video and you are ready to experience how our systems perform live:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or  contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are not yet signed up to our FREE Trading Tips, Webinars, Reports…sign up here.

We are training and coaching one-on-one, spots are extremely limited, so do not miss out.

Good trading,

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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April 7, 2017 at 11:18 am Leave a comment

Homerun Trading

The success principles of trading can be compared to professional sports: Success comes from skill and practice.

  • When stepping onto the plate, I am prepared to swing, wait for the right moment and trade.
  • On each opportunity, I am prepared to make short-term good profits, administering tight stops, and when the market allows, I am aiming for the fences.

baseball-scheme-by-neverlosstrading

  • Bring the odds on your favor; take hits in accordance to defined system entries.
  • Fill the bases: Scale in and out of positions to capitalize on home run possibilities.
  • Accept losses as part of trading, knowing the next trade will come from your system.
  • Concentrate on what you are doing without distraction.

If you have all this already in place, there is no need to read further; however, if you want to improve your trading and investing skills to let the markets pay you, read on.

NeverLossTrading developed systems that help you to spot and follow institutional money moves. Our in-house developed algorithms help traders to decide right from the chart. All our indicators are based on the natural happening of supply and demand. We offer you fractal based models that work for all time frames and all asset classes: Stocks, options, futures, FOREX.

With more than 30 years of experience, we are in the education business since 2008; focused on your wants and needs, teaching and coaching one-on-one at your best available days and times.

Our mentorships start with TradeColors.com (our introductory system), where two-same-color candles define a trade setup (highlighted in orange boxes) and you only trade if the high of a blue-candle-sequence or the low of a red-candle-sequence is surpassed by the next candle.

FB 2-Hour TradeColors.com Chart

fb-2-hour-chart-tradecolors-november-17-to-december-1

The chart shows you three confirmed trade situations that all lead to a positive outcome when you followed the entry- and exit rules with teach in a four hour one-on-one mentorship.

Surely, we also support you by handing you a detailed tutorial, which explains the indicators, trade setups and various trade strategies. Each of your teaching sessions will be recorded, so you can repeat the learned until it sits and you can swing when the chart gives you the right trade situations. Focusing on you to learn how to trade, we install all software and chart setups for you on a free trading platform that provides you real-time data access with no annual fees; allowing you to trade what you see by keeping your broker relationship without additional costs.

If this strikes your interest, we are happy to invite you to a personal demonstration:

Call: +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Adding more indicators and the convenience to read the desired price threshold right off the chart, NLT Top-Line offers a 20-hour mentorship, own scanners, watch list indicators and a lot more. This is what you see on the chart:

E-Mini Dow Futures 2-Hour NLT Top-Line Chart, December 1-5, 2016

DOW 2-Hour Chart December 5, 2016.png

The chart above highlighted the most actual trade situations, capturing major price turning points by spelling out price thresholds: Buy>$19,170 for example. This way, you can operate with buy-stop orders and you only enter a trade when the set price threshold is surpassed in the price development of the next candle.

Your trading career as a full-time or part-time trader has to be prepared: Those who fail to prepare, prepare to fail. We published in a short book: “Your Trading Career as a Private Investor” key action steps, you might want to consider: A less than $3 investment that can help you a lot.

In each of our mentorships, we help you to define a business plan for your trading success, which includes a financial plan (what to expect) and an action plan (what to do, how, and when).

To assure the learned sticks with you, you can send us your trades for feedback.

Consider to move ahead with your trading and investing and schedule your personal demonstration: Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

What often happens Changes to be made How it can be done
Entering positions on news or assumptions.

 

Only trade on system defined situations with clearly spelled out entries and exits. Follow the NeverLossTrading instructions: Let the chart tell, when to buy or sell!
Constantly aiming for the fences (homeruns), instead of moving ahead trade by trade.

 

Take the opportunity, trail the stop, get out when the trade turns against you or adjust your trade to potentially turn losers into winners. Trading multiple lots at once, taking profits at 1-SPU, 2-SPU with a trailed stop. SPU is the NLT specific expected price move after institutional engagement.
Aggravation, frustration, distraction, when trades do not work: Loss of oversight. Stay focused, trade on indicators only. Never do a revenge trade. The market owes you nothing. Focus and concentrate on your trading plan: What to trade, when to trade, how to trade.
Taking every opportunity instead of letting those go by that are not promising to be a good hit. Checking the risk/reward-ratio and the probability of the setup, trading only when the odds are in your favor. Follow a business plan: financial plan and action plan. Position size according to your odds appraisal. We share those models with you in the mentorship.
Trying to do three things at once, not staying fully concentrated on trading. The batter has to clearly concentrate on the ball. The same accounts for trading. Following a pro-trader setup:  Analysis, risk management, administration, trade mechanics. All taught in our mentorships.

Consider to move ahead with your trading and investing and schedule your personal demonstration: Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Teaching one-on-one, spots are extremely limited.

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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December 10, 2016 at 8:12 am Leave a comment

Are You Trading at Price Turning Points?

Dear Fellow Trader,

Successful traders decide on which chart constellations they trade. A sound chart analysis is a mandatory skill to become a successful trader or investor.

Where most traders struggle:

  • Which are best time frames, tick- or range-bars to trade, to be able to detect a signal from noise?
  • What is the amount of meaningful risk to take and for how much reward and time do you trade for?
  • Which assets are best to trade at what time frames and times of the day?
  • Do you know assets ready for a price move and are you able to stay out of the market when nothing moves?
  • Are you following a trading plan with clearly defined entries, exits, stops or adjustment levels?
  • Can you hedge a position that turns against you; turning a potential loser even into a winner?
  • Are you trading at multiple time frames to create multiple steams of income at key price turning points?

This is where we step in and help you to make a difference: Understanding the influence of your personality in trading, we teach one-one-one, with focus on your personal wants and needs at best available times; creating together with you a business plan that contains a financial plan to formulate your expectations and an action plan, for you to know at any given day and trade situation, what to do.

Thomas Barmann, the inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading, is a master at teaching others how to trade calmly, rationally and only when the odds are in your favor. He has proven himself for decades as a leader and action taker, helping the people he works with to achieve results above their expectations.

Systems and trading techniques shared work for day traders, swing traders and long-term investors, operating with Stocks, ETF’s, Options, Futures and FOREX.

If you fail to prepare trading the markets without a strong system and education, you might be prepared to fail.

Check our offering: http://neverlosstrading.com/images/Mentorship%20Programs%20Overview%201.pdf

We are just adding a new education package:

NeverLossTrading TurnPoint Trading Mentorship Program

NLT TurnPoint Trading Logo

The NLT TurnPoint Trading Concept is for the modern day trader, swing trader, and long-term investor. Trade at critical price turning points with a high probability trading system, applicable for Stocks, Options, Futures, FOREX:

Gaph-1: Dow 30 Emini Futures Chart with Trade Indications at Turn Points

Turn Point Dow 4 Hours

In the above chart, you see five confirmed trades (the candle after trade initiation indication was surpassing the set price threshold). This resulted in four winning and one losing trade, accepting the signals mechanically; by considering certain trade patterns we share in our mentorship, the loss could have been prevented.

The NLT Turn Point Trading Concept is applicable for all time frames and trading styles: Day trading, swing trading and long-term investing. When we come together, we let you choose your priority and we tailor the NLT mentorship according to your needs: Multiple trading styles can be combined in one and the same mentorship:

Your training and coaching is always one-on-one, producing highest focus and efficiency:

  • Follow institutional money moves with indications for algorithmic buy- and sell programs.
  • Expect reaching your pre-defined trade targets in one to three bars or close your trade after a maximum of five bars; independent from the time frame or asset class you chose.
  • Spot indications for directional price moves on the price chart and lower studies.
  • Find high probability setups for all asset-classes; even experience how to pick 5:1 and 10:1 reward/risk scenarios.
  • Five Hours of executive training/coaching and two months of mentorship.

Graph-2: FB Turn Point Trading from a 4-HOUR Chart

Turn Point FB 4-Hours

High predictability: 75% winners on the chart above, just by taking signals mechanically, while we teach you how to position sizing, depending on the probability of the individual setup.

Would that make a difference to your trading?

The NLT Turn Point Trading Concept is a powerful algorithmic-based, high probability trading system. It works as a stand alone or in conjunction with other NeverLossTrading concepts, always giving you:

  • Defined entry prices: When those are surpassed, we can expect a strong directional price move.
  • Stop levels, identified by either: 2% of 1-SPU above/below the trade indicating candle or below a NLT Box Line.
  • Clear set goals, where target-1 is represented by a dot on the chart, indicating a 1-SPU price move (SPU = Speed Unit, or minimum expected price move after institutional action is identified and confirmed). Target two is represented either by the next NLT Box Line that carried over from the past price action.

The following chart shows a 24-Hour time frame for the Emini S&P 500 futures. Again, we were taking trades mechanically at each signal and produced a very high return rate. In the mentorship, you will learn position sizing and potentially not accepting some trades based on price limiting lines, you see on the chart.

Graph-3: Day Trading with the NeverLossTrading Turn Point Indicator.

Turn Point ES 20 Minutes .January 22 2016

Aside from the signals spelled out at the price chart and lower study, you can follow and use the TradeColors.com concept, which is imbedded: trading at price continuation patterns of two red- or two blue color sequences.

The study on the bottom contains additional validation and initiation signals, helping you to find sound trade entries at key turning points.

All NeverLossTrading concepts help you to spot and follow institutional money moves on multiple time frames and for all asset classes.

The “NLT TurnPoint Trading Package” includes:

  • Five indicators, working together, signaling high probability trade setups.
  • All software installed for you on a server, accessible form all your computers.
  • Specific trading plans for a selected set of securities (while it works with any security).
  • Two months of free NLT Alerts: Identifying assets with institutional attention.
  • 7-hours of teaching with individual recordings.
  • 100 pages of documentation.

The NLT TurnPoint Trader Program will be tailored to your specific wants and needs as a day trader, swing trader or long-term investor, teaching you on the referring assets, applying:

A) Strong Directional Trading Methods at Turn Points

We teach you in trading methods with highly positive reward/risk relations, rarely to be found or published anywhere else, backed up by:

  • Trade comparison calculations.
  • Chart analysis techniques.
  • Back- and forward tested indicators.
  • Trade Evaluation Model

B) Trades at Price Continuation Patterns

Trade when market makers better their inventory positions.

For adding to an existing position or starting a trade at a new high probability chart-setup.

C) Adaptive, Algorithm-Based NLT Indicators

  • Auto-calibrating by the change in observed time-unit or asset. –

The Software Package contains the following indicators and studies; all installed for you, giving you FREE real time data access to all US-exchanges:

  • NLT_Candle_Colors
  • NLT_Box
  • NLT_Speedometer
  • NLT_Turn_Point_Trading Indicator
  • NeverLossTrading_Turn_Point_Validator (multi study indicator)

D) Top Notch Documentation

Aside from being trained in individually focused sessions, you will also receive a clearly detailed tutorial with screen shots, trade examples, and trading strategies. Each training session will be recorded for your personal use.

E) Program Aftercare

When your initial teaching is over, we will meet you once a month for a period of two months to clarify questions and pass on more detailed training. Surely, if you need our help in between, we are there for you.

F) Executive Training and Coaching

Learn from a proven leader, focusing to turn you into the trader you want to be –

  • Individually scheduled classes.
  • Specific training, focused on your individual wants and needs.
  • Clear direction and trade execution.

G) NLT Alerts

Sharing assets with institutional attention: Fish, where the fish are. Our scanners find good harvesting grounds for you, reporting at least three times per week or even on a daily basis, assets with potential price movements.

Examples of what an upgrade to NLT Top-Line provides:Some of the indicators used in “Turn Point Trading” are also used in other NLT systems, making it easy for you to upgrade for receiving additional signal, giving you a higher participation rate.

  • High probability trade entries, spelled out on the price chart.
  • Instant reading, how an individual security performs in respect to the overall market.
  • Price move evaluation: Major or minor move of the asset.
  • Software to scan for assets with favorable price/volume moves.
  • One click performance view on NLT-Watch-Lists installed on your machine.
  • Additional support programs and trainings.

Offered at a price between NLT Top-Line and NLT WealthBuilding, this new program shall offer you easy to follow chart setup and high probability setups with little personal discretion.

For a personal demonstration, please feel free to contact us:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

http://NeverLossTrading.com

The risk of trading securities, options, futures can be substantial. Customers must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal financial situation before trading. In our teaching of how to trade the markets, in our newsletters, webinars and our involvement in the Investment Clubs, neither NOBEL Living, LLC, the parent company of NeverLossTrading® , or any of the speakers, staff or members act as stockbrokers, broker dealers, or registered investment advisers. We worked out trading concepts and share them through education with our members and clients.

 

 

 

 

June 11, 2016 at 12:34 pm Leave a comment

Pro Trading Strategies for Private Investors

Pro Traders just get the direction more often right than wrong, if they don’t, they will not be in business for long; however, big institutions have deep pockets and the ability to either drag out or revert losing trades.

Building you up like a pro, let us start by getting the direction right with the help of a simple, activity based algorithm; putting you at par with the pro trader…click for the video.

At par with Pro Traders (no text)

Now, your question might be: Why should a follower strategy be successful?

You have an edge over institutions: Entire positions can be opened and closed at once, while institutions have to scale in and out of positions: this will give you better entries, exits, and returns.

If you like what you see on the video and you want to bring your ability to the next level, schedule your personal consulting hour:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

We are training and coaching traders, one-on-one, since 2008 and produced many successful private investors/traders.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas

http://NeverLossTrading.com

April 21, 2016 at 9:49 am Leave a comment

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