Posts filed under ‘Trading plan’

Trading and Investing in Times of Volatility

Since the beginning of 2018, the US-stock market gives traders and investors a challenge that was not present for a long time: increasing volatility.

There are different ways of expressing volatility: Commonly the VIX (CBOE Market Volatility Index) is taken as the volatility measure; however, besides a short spark in February, the VIX still dwells below 20, which is considered low volatility.

Volatility  by NeverLossTrading.png

On the other hand, we do not need to rely on what the index says to understand if volatility increased or not. Just take a monthly chart and look at the size candles of the core stock market index, then you see what is happening:

NLT TrendCatching Chart for SPX (S&P 500 Index), October 2016 to April 2018

SPX Monthly Chart April 2018.png

The chart shows you multiple buy signals along the up move until the S&P 500 reached its high in January 2018. In March of 2018, a first sell signal occurred.

How to read the NeverLossTrading Trend Catching Chart:

  • With the NLT system, you trade or invest when the formulated price threshold is surpassed in the price-move of the next candle: Buy>$2519.40 was indicated end of September 2017 and confirmed in October 2017, leading to going long in the index and we closed the position when the price reached the gray target dot at $2590.40; concluding a 71-point price move. End of November 2017, another price threshold was formulated and confirmed in the next candle and came to target. The last buy signal on the chart: Buy>$2877.90 was final and no more confirmed.
  • By the change in color, a momentum change came on the chart, resulting in a first sell signal: Sell<$2585.90.
  • The bottom study: NeverLossTrading Balance of Power Indicator, tells you in blue that buyers were in command (blue bars), until in February 2018, when sellers were more dominant.

All NLT charts auto-adjust and signal directional trading opportunities, regardless of the asset or time frame you choose.

Back to volatility:

When you look at the size of the 2018 monthly candles, you recognize that they are significantly bigger (top-to-bottom) than all the candles we have seen in the prior months: telling you that volatility increased, and as a trader or investor, you better have strategies on hand to deal with times of higher volatility.

Why do we make this point?

In times of higher volatility, when keeping the same risk tolerance, your risk of getting stopped out in your trades increases; thus you need new trading strategies to cope with the new risk gauge to bring your trades to target.

When trading or investing, we make assumptions, predicting potential directional price moves, while we cannot influence if the price gets to our target; however, we can control the risk by the trading strategy we apply: Meaning, if you prior operated with a 2% stop, in times of volatility, a 5% stop might be needed to follow the predominant price move.

If the increased volatility brings you outside of your risk tolerance, you have multiple choices to still trade and invest:

  • Decrease your position size.
  • Reduce the time frame you base your trading decisions on.
  • Choose option strategies that allow a limited-risk and directional reward opportunity.
  • Change to trading strategies that function best at times of volatility.

The last point might be a bit ambiguous, so let us throw an example.

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Index on 4/13/2018 with NLT Top-Line and TrendCatching Signals

ES April 13 Ranges

Each price move captured on the chart resulted in a $250 gain/risk based on one futures contract. Just add up the realized directional opportunities of one trading day and you see; how a change in trading strategies can accelerate your opportunities to participate in directional price moves of the underlying multiple times a day.

This is where we come into play and help you to have the trading strategies, systems, and systematics on hand to cope with every trade environment.

To learn more about what you will experience trading the markets the NeverLossTrading way, check out our info page and make a decision..click.

We are in business since 2008 and developed multiple systems and the necessary tools and knowledge base to support you in your aim for trading and investing success. If this is for you and you want to experience how it works live:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are not already subscribed to our free trading tips, reports, and webinars…sign up here.

Best regards,

Thomas Barmann

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April 17, 2018 at 5:48 am Leave a comment

Option Trading for Private Investors

Options offer wonderful tools for private investors to participate in the price moves of the underlying stocks, futures, commodities, and currencies.

With options, you find a variety of trading opportunities by Calls, Puts at various strike prices and expiration dates; not to mention the ability to create multiple types of spreads and combinations to take advantage of different market conditions; however, we want to keep it simple and focus on using options for participating in directional price moves of the underlying assets and you can do this with any type of account, even IRA, custodian, or cash accounts.

Option Trading by NeverLossTrading.png

Thus, let us share with you how to find strong directional price move setups and explain the reasons for trading options instead of the underlying assets.

Focusing on a simple way of option-trading, we buy Calls to participate in price moves to the upside and we buy Puts for price moves to the downside.

What will be your advantage of buying options over buying or selling the asset?

Our answers are multifold:

  • You can limit your maximum risk to the premium paid.
  • Options allow you to only invest a fraction: 1% – 5% of the asset price.
  • You operate with leverage, striving for 30% – 200% return per trade.
  • Trades can be repaired when they do not work: reducing losses or even turning losers into winners.
  • There is no uptick rule for buying or selling options and thus, you can participate in price moves to the downside in any type of account and market condition.

Your key to successful option-trading is your ability to repetitively predict directional price moves with a high accuracy.

This is where a trading system comes into play and you best only consider trading systems that offer you the following:

  • A ≥ 65% probability to predict the future price move of an asset.
  • Trading/investing at specific and confirmed entry conditions only.
  • At entry, you receive specific target prices, reachable in a pre-defined period of time.
  • Operating with specific stop price levels, where you either exit your trade or you start repairing it.

For option traders, the element of high predictability of a price move at a pre-specified time period is important: At whatever strike price you buy Puts or Calls, you are always paying a time value; which is decaying, taking away from your investment even so the underlying asset price might not even move in your disfavor.

Let us put together two examples:

TSLA Daily NLT-Top Line Chart March 5 to March 29, 2018

TSLA NLT Top Line March 30, 2018

The chart shows you on 3/14/2018 a trade condition: Sell <$323.92 (CiC expresses a change in command; sellers take over from buyers at this setup). Thus you can operate with a clear-cut entry-level condition: When the price-move of the next candle surpasses the set price threshold, go short in the asset (TSLA) through buying Puts.

The trade entry condition was met in the next candle/bar on 3/15/2018 and thus confirmed the trade entry. By the system conditions, you know the maximum and favorable price to pay for the option and the time to expiration to decide for. We teach those details, concepts, and strategies in our mentorships and give you the tools on hand for taking solid trading and investing decisions.

Where is the magic in trading options?

Let us explain:

  1. You are able to participate in the downside price move of TSLA without the need to comply with SEC regulations that do not allow sorting stocks with account holdings < $25,000, or in an IRA, or cash accounts.
  2. No need to borrow TSLA stock from your broker, with the risk that it might not be available for you.
  3. The NLT system conditions specified at the chosen instance, the maximum price to pay for TSLA Put options at $14; favorably at $7:
  • When accepting the trade, Puts were available at $7.22 and such the price to pay was in spec. (the NLT chart dashboard expresses those price levels).
  • In essence, your minimum investment to participate in the price move of TSLA was 2.2% of the share price at entry (just a fraction); asking you for a $722 investment, which is more or less the price of two shares and you control 100.
  1. By NLT Top-Line, we assume to reach the price target-1 after a maximum time in the trade of five bars/candles.
  • Actually, the price moved to target-1in three bars, producing a 70% return on investment.
  • Price target-2 was supposed to be reached after a maximum of 10 bars and was reached at bar-8, with a return on investment of 433%.

Next, we show you if you like to take a longer-term perspective, how the system can help you to make sound decisions with fractional investments:

MSFT Weekly NLT-Top Line Chart, November 2017 to March 2018

MSFT Weekly NLT Top-Line March 2018

The chart shows a buy threshold at Buy>$88.41, which was confirmed in the price move of the next candle, allowing the trade entry with Call options. This way, you can pre-condition your order so it only goes into the market when your conditions are met, at your pre-defined offering price. This way, you do not have a need to sit in front of your computer for the order entry.

By our system, we originally assumed to reach the target-1 after one to five bars and got there in two bars. Target-2 was reached at bar-3 (3-weeks later), with the following return expectations:

  • Return at target-1: 52%.
  • Return at target-2: 110%.

Again, you just had to invest a fraction of the share price: <2% and you were able to participate in the price move of the underlying in $160 investment increments.

We hope this shows you, how you can keep more of your own money and make better than average returns… and fewer mistakes. NeverLossTrading provides you with the systems and knowledge to find such opportunities and to make those decisions. You stay in control as the markets move up and down, with at-a-glance guidance where the chart will tell, when to best buy or sell. Your trade potentials are either to be found by own scanners or by the NeverLossTrading Alerts (subscription service).

To learn more about what you will experience trading the markets the NeverLossTrading way, check out our info page and make a decision..click.

We are in business since 2008 and developed multiple systems and the necessary tools and knowledge base to support you in your aim for trading and investing success. If this is for you and you want to experience how it works live:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

If you are not already subscribed to our free trading tips, reports, and webinars…sign up here.

Best regards,

Thomas Barmann

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April 5, 2018 at 11:21 am Leave a comment

What it takes to be a Trader or Investor

If you want to know what is needed to turn you into the trader or investor you want to be, listen well and read the following documentation.

At times, we play a high probability game, where we let people bet on a draw of marbles from a bag. In a bag of 20 marbles and we put marble back after the draw, keeping the same ratio:

  • 13 green marbles that win.
  • 7 red marbles that lose.

Thus, you have a high chance of winning; however, watch the video or read on to experience what happened in reality.

Bag of Marbles Intro

The shocking results:

Starting out with a paper money account, after 20 games, 60% of the people had less money than they started out with; 30% in average even went broke.

Statistically, how many people should have made more money than they started out with?

To answer this, we rely on the Bernoulli-Experiment, which gives us after 20 draws an expectation that 87.8% of the participants, using a 65%-probability to win, should have made more money than they started out with.

Why did this not happen?

Making money requires risk management (appropriate risk per trade), money management (position sizing) and more. If you do not have those skills in your repertoire, you most probably end up not having a chance to produce the returns that you expect.

However, the financial markets do not offer you easy and equal opportunities. The pros are prepared to take your money.

When you trade or invest, the ones who accept your trade are prepared to win; minimizing your chances for positive results. Institutions dominate the game and when you want to enter into a professional business, you better be prepared.

This is where we can help you to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be.

We provide you with high probability trading systems: ≥65% likelihood to project strong directional price moves, with the required training and coaching to let you act as mechanical as possible, playing par-to-par with the pros, with the odds in your favor.

Let us pull up a chart and see if you would be able to follow those signals:

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures, February 2, 2018, 20-Minute Chart

ES 20 Minute Chart for February 2, 2018

One of our key slogans is: Let the chart tell when to buy or sell!

Do you use a system and does it provide you with the same (clear cut entries, exits, and stops)?

When you learn to trade and invest the NeverLossTrading way, you get this:

  • Follow high probability trade setups to the up and downside, with pre-defined entries, exits, and stops or price adjustment levels.
  • Learn one-on-one at your best available days and times.
  • Apply a business plan for trading success:
    • Financial plan: Expected return based on the number of trades or investments per time-unit.
    • Action plan: How to prepare for your trades to conveniently even act when conditions are met; without the need of being in front of your computer at entry or exit.
  • Getting all signals, scanners and more installed into a free real-time database.
  • Make risk management and money management a daily action, preventing drawdowns and appropriate risk acceptance.
  • Apply multiple trading strategies based on the actual setup…and more (see below).

Does that only work for day trading?

Absolutely not: Our systems identify price move potentials at:

  • Pre-stages of a price move.
  • Initiation stages.
  • Continuation stages.

AAPL Swing Trading NeverLossTrading Top-Line Chart, January 1 to February 2, 2018

AAPL January 1 - February 2, 2018

However, the system alone does not necessarily get you to where you want to be, and this is where we help you, with one-on-one training and coaching.

We hope you see now that many gears have to cut into each other to give you the chance to take money from the financial market’s long-term.

In a short summary: Answer for yourself if you already have everything in place, starting with a high probability trading system: Probability to predict future price moves with a higher than 65% likelihood, considering the following:

Overview of what it takes to be a Trader or Investor

System and Trading Strategies

Now that you see what it takes, the question is: Are you able to create this on your own or do you rather trust into a primer education provider (we are in business since 2008), who can help you to shorten your fairway to success: It took us more than 10,000 hours and more than 30 years of experience in putting it all together.

In case you do rather want to buy and hold positions, we can help you too. Take a look at the following chart:

AMZN NeverLossTrading Long-Term Investor Chart June 2015 to February 2018

AMZN Long-Term Investor Chart 2015 to 2018 (January)

If you like to learn how to act on clearly spelled out directional price move opportunities, take our offer and experience how our systems work live. Get a free demonstration:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Sign up for our free trading tips, reports, and webinars…click
We are looking forward to hearing back from you,
Thomas
www.NeverLossTrading.com
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February 7, 2018 at 7:54 am Leave a comment

Trading and Investing in 2018

Read on and watch the movie…click

Question Mark on 2018 Intro

Do you have a system that tells you where prices move?

Let the chart tell when to buy or sell.

Can you make money, when the market goes sideways?

Are you prepared to make gains if the market goes down?

HAL Daily NLT Top-Line Chart

HAL NLT Top-Line December 2017

Trade condition to:

  • The next candle on the chart hast to surpass the set price threshold for us to enter long or short.
  • Target-1 and target-2 are spelled out on the chart; expecting an 85% likelihood that the price development, halters, retraces, or reverses after target-2.
  • Knowing the maximum time in the trade at entry.
  • Applying specific options strategies so you can leverage your investments and short from IRA or other cash accounts.

Does this only work for daily charts?

Our systems work on all time-frames, tick-charts, range-bars.

E-Mini-S&P 500 Futures 1-Hour NLT Top-Line Chart for December 7, 2017

ES December 7, 1-Hour Chart

E-Mini-S&P 500 Futures 30-Minute NLT Top-Line Chart for December 11/12, 2017

ES NLT Top-Line December 11, 12, 2017

You use the lower red line when trailing your stop.

With the help of our trading systems, training, and coaching, you experience:

  1. How high probability trade setups can be found based on the underlying pre-stage of a price move.
  2. The importance of projecting at entry how far the price move shall reach and where to put a key action stop, to stay out of the natural volatility of an asset – combining the two for trading with the odds in your favor?
  3. To apply multiple trading strategies for hedging and leveraging positions.
  4. The power of position sizing, considering the strength of your trade setup by a minimum and maximum risk assessment.
  5. Having and operating with a business plan for trading success: Financial Plan (what to expect) and Action Plan (how to act).

If you want to learn how to integrate this and more into your trading and investing, arrange for a free consultation hour:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Sign up for our free trading tips, reports, and webinars…click

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy

 

:)

December 17, 2017 at 8:07 am Leave a comment

Directional Trading

Dear Trader,

The way to produce trading returns is to get the price direction of an asset right: Stocks, Options, Futures, FOREX.
Easier said than done!
However, with the right system and systematic on hand, you can be in for high probability trading.
We summarized what to consider and how it can be done in 25 min video…click

The video will only be up for short, so do not miss out!

Rule Based Trading

With the help of our trading systems, training, and coaching, you experience:

  1. How high probability trade setups can be found based on the underlying pre-stage of a price move.
  2. The importance of projecting at entry how far the price move shall reach and where to put a key action stop, to stay out of the natural volatility of an asset – combining the two for trading with the odds in your favor?
  3. To apply multiple trading strategies for hedging and leveraging positions.
  4. The power of position sizing, considering the strength of your trade setup by a minimum and maximum risk assessment.
  5. Operating with a business plan for trading success: Financial Plan (what to expect) and Action Plan (how to act).

If you want to learn how to integrate this and more in your trading and investing:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Sign up for our Free Trading Tips, Reports, and Webinars…click.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,
Thomas
www.NeverLossTrading.com
Disclaimer, Terms and ConditionsPrivacy | Customer Support

 

November 30, 2017 at 6:12 am Leave a comment

How to Decide When to Trade or Invest

Is fundamental analysis the basis of your decision making? Are you in the position to outsmart the world’s best analysts, working for companies like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan (just to name a few)? Let us be casual, you are most likely not!

As a result, technical analysis is the logical choice.

At this point, we immediately want to bridge over:

Imagine, one of this big institutional investment firms starts an action to collect or distribute an asset. In this case, other asset holders and market participants will recognize the action and either trade with or against what they notice. If you had an indication on hand, that such situation is there, you would be in the position to observe if specific price thresholds are surpassed to trade with a developing directional price move.

Click here to watch the video…click.

Rule Based Trading

This is exactly what we do with the NeverLossTrading concepts. We do not squeeze the real market action into a mathematical formula like moving averages; we measure the action of now and formulate resulting price moves for all asset classes and time-frames and only act:

  • When the directional price move is confirmed.
  • When the odds are in our favor.
  • At pre-formulated entry-, exit, and stop levels.
  • With a plan-B, in case the trade goes wrong.
  • For a pre-formulated maximum time period.

With such system on hand, your chart is telling you, where the momentum and the trend are going and you can act by our key slogan:

Trade What You See! Let the chart tell when to buy or sell.

Chart-1: AAPL Weekly NLT Trend Catching Chart July/August 2017

Reward Risk Time on AAPL Weekly Chart

Chart-1 shows a long-setup at the candle that closed on July 21, 2017 with the following components:

  • Buy>$151.74, if next week’s price development surpasses this threshold.
  • Stop or trade repair (plan-B), if the price drops to $147.20.
  • Exit at target of $157.07 or after three bars (in the example: three weeks).
  • Reward/Risk: 1.3-time the reward to risk (favorable – odds in your favor).

How did we come to predict such price moves?

Prior to a price change, we measure the underlying change in supply and demand and from there:

  • We extrapolate a price point to enter into a directional trade (buy-stop or sell-stop order).
  • Our system pre-formulates the exit point: target.
  • In addition, a stop or trade adjustment level is pre-formulated at entry.

Bringing those components together, we focus on high probability trading with attainment rates >65%, together with the imperative to apply a time-based exit: closing the trade if the expected price target is not reached after 3-bars.

You might say: That sounds like tape-reading and in a way, it is; however, with the most advanced algorithms, real-time data, server technology and vector graphics. A single person could never replicate what our computers can do.

Even so, we specify trading as mechanical as possible; we value the human element:

  • By teaching you pattern recognition and quick observation of key supply and demand levels on the chart.
  • By always trading with a plan-B, allowing you to repair trades instead of taking a stop-loss.

Thus, you are applying algorithmic trading with human interaction: a strong combination.

By teaching one-on-one and by providing longer-term coaching, we focus on your individual wants and needs; helping you to turn yourself into the trader or investor you want to be.

Chart-2: AAPL 30-Minute NLT Top-Line Chart August 14 – 17, 2017

AAPL 30 Minute NLT Top-Line Chart for August 14 2017

Chart-2 shows, how to trade short-term price developments with a two-tier target setting (the system works the same way for longer-term trades). Aside from placing the stop at the base of the red-line at entry, you can also trail your stop by following the red line, participating in the price-move from the beginning to the end.

To keep this short: If you like to trade long-term or short-term price moves, we can provide you with the system and algorithm that supports your trading style.

We tune our systems, training time and coaching, to fit your individual wants and needs; helping you to turn yourself into the trader or investor, you want to be.

We offer several systems and always teach one-on-one. We are in business since 2008 and dedicate our knowledge, passion and time to those we commit to. If you like to be one of the NeverLossTraders, call us or schedule an individual demonstration at:

+1 800 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

When we work together, it is not only that you learn to read charts by our indicators and patterns, you will experience the following:

  • A business plan for trading success: Financial plan (which return to expect at your best available time) and an action plan (what to do when and how).
  • How to repair trades that go wrong, with the potential to turn losers into winners (this is where our name came from; however, Never Stop Loss Trading was lengthy).
  • How to hedge and leverage your holdings, making the additional income you deserve and prevent draw downs.
  • Trading or investing with multiple strategies and only when the odds are in your favor.
  • Option trading strategies, capturing risk and escalating returns at all asset classes.
  • Clear cut trading plan, with chart-based entries, exits, stop or adjustment levels.
  • Learning at your best available days and times.
  • Coaching until you get independent and free.
  • High probability trading at or above 65% probability for success.
  • Clear cut documentations for every system and trade setup (NLT Tutorials).
  • Recorded learning session for an easy repeat on any device until the learned sits.

This and more is what you find in the NeverLossTrading mentorships.

If you feel, this is for you:

Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com

Sign up for our free trading tips, webinars, and reports…click.

We are looking forward to hearing back from you,

Thomas

www.NeverLossTrading.com

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August 21, 2017 at 8:13 am Leave a comment

How to Trade Long-Term Signals Short-Term

By our research, NLT weekly chart signals translate with a very high congruency into 4-hour trading opportunities. We do that as follows:

Weekly signals go on the four-hour watch list and are traded independent when an NLT signal occurs and is confirmed. See the wave coupling chart on the intro picture. With the NLT systems, you obtain a scanner alerting you and you also learn how to set chart alerts that go to text or email.

Weave Coupling Intro

With the NLT trading method, you only trade when other market participants confirm the indicated trading direction.

Last week, we informed our students and subscribers that based on the current earnings declaration period, we rather prefer short-term to longer-term stock engagements and thus, put the following signals on our 4-hour watch list:

  • GM
  • FB
  • V
  • HPQ

To limit the number of charts to show, we measure the 4-hour trade performance based on NLT TrendCatching signals.

Trading Results 4-Hour Chart for Weekly NLT Trend Catching Signals

In case this table is hard to read, we had the following signals and attainment:

  • GM (no signal – no trade)
  • FB: one signal and a 0.9% return on cash in one day
  • V: two signal and a 1.7% return on cash in two days
  • HP: two trade signals, each came to target in the next candle and a 3.3% return on cash

You will learn to operate trades with buy-stop and sell-stop OCO orders. This way, you can pre-program all trade entries and exits and thus, you have no need to be in front of your computer to control the trade: it controls itself after it triggers.

Let us give you an the chart demonstrations for NLT Trend Catching

Chart-1: FB 4-Hour Chart – one winning trade

FB July 21 2017

Chart-2: V 4-Hour Chart – two winning trades

V July 21, 2017

Chart-3: HPQ 4-Hour Chart – two winning trades

HPQ July 21 2017

When you ask yourself where those signals came from? The NLT Long-Term Investor Alerts.

The NLT Long-Term Investor Alerts..click. 

Besides stocks, we surely trade work with other assets. If you feel our trading style and systems can make a change to your trading, setup a consulting hour with us:

For more information: contact@NeverLossTrading.com  or call: +1 866 455 4520

In case you have not yet participated in downloading a new trading book, where we wrote chapter 19, you can do this here: The entire eBook is Free

To subscribe to our FREE trading tips, webinars, and reports…click here.

Good trading,

Thomas

www.NeverLossTrading.com

Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support

July 22, 2017 at 11:49 am Leave a comment

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