Trade Viral Volatility
When price change goes viral, it offers chances and risks—experience how to act with the odds in your favor.
How to Control Your Trading Results
A guide to measure and control the process to trading success.
Timeless Trading Success
Experience how to act with high probability, less predictability, on a high participation rate in many opportunities, giving you an edge as a retail trader.
Bitcoin NeverLossTrading Style
Bitcoin is the world-leading cryptocurrency, and there are multiple ways for you to participate in the underlying price moves.
Trading Knowledge & Time
By entering the trading world, you are getting into a professional business, were the ones taking the other side of your trade are prepared to win. Hence, you need to ask yourself if you are fit for the task and ready to stand your ground.
Be a 20 Minute Trader
Experience what is needed to be an efficient retail trader with the right competency and skill set to be consistently profitable. Yes, you need to read through more than 140 characters; please feel invited!
Trading Volatility Daily
Trading at times of higher volatility provides threats and opportunities. Learn what trading volatility can do for you by reading our publication and watching the video on our blog.
Return on Risk in Trading
Successful traders bring risk and reward in a meaningful balance to produce long-term income from the financial market—experience how this can be done by reading on.
Retirement Account Trading
Make gains when the markets drop. Learn how to trade your retirement accounts in a free eBook. Please make a difference and learn how it is doable.
Continue Reading February 24, 2022 at 8:24 am Leave a comment
Let the Chart Tell When to Buy or Sell
What is the basis of your trading decisions, and how do you limit your risk? Explore how decision-making and selected trading strategies can bring the odds in your favor.
Continue Reading February 16, 2022 at 4:59 am Leave a comment
Day Trade for a Living
Day trading is an excellent concept of creating constant income from the financial markets. We share systems and systematics with you that allow trading with mechanical rules at risk/reward setups that put the odds in your favor: watch the video and read on at our blog.
Continue Reading February 9, 2022 at 5:17 am Leave a comment
Trade Your Retirement Money
Learn in a free eBook how to make a difference by trading your retirement money on multiple time frames.
Continue Reading February 4, 2022 at 9:45 am Leave a comment
Retail Traders Delights
The NLT Retail Traders Delights Concept shows you how you can participate in extraordinary stock price moves to the upside and downside, complying with the SEC imposed rules, from any account, even from an IRA. Experience the details in a 15-minute video.
Continue Reading January 28, 2022 at 4:03 am Leave a comment
Why Most Trading Strategies Fail
Traders forecast price behavior based on assumptions. We share how to find a model that helps you make sound decisions, using a price distribution model that differs from the regularly applied normal distribution.
Continue Reading January 19, 2022 at 5:01 am Leave a comment
Fear and Excitement in Trading
Acting in the world of trading and investing requires you to prepare in multiple dimensions, and we want to share a step-by-step approach to implement and follow.
System and Behavior Determine Trading Results
There are seven considerations for private traders or investors to have a chance in the financial markets. Unfortunately, most retail traders do not consider them; hence, let us list those for you in a free eBook, and you can also listen to the podcast.
Women and Men in Trading, what is the Difference?
Men and women take a considerably different trading approach, and all of us can learn from this to increase our return expectations by following more probable success principles.
Continue Reading December 29, 2021 at 6:01 am Leave a comment
How to know when to Trade?
A quick answer to the question of this publication:
How to know when to Trade?
Your highest likelihood to catch a price movement is when you identify and trade at crucial price turning points!
In this publication, we want to invite you to a method of finding and acting on opportunities where buyers take over from sellers and vice versa.
To share crucial content, we explain how and why, so enjoy reading more than a Twitter message and contact us for questions: contact@NeverLossTrading.com
A price change is the result of a change in supply or demand. Hence, we can predict price development by measuring and extrapolating underlying shifts in supply and demand.
For specifying crucial price turning points, we use algorithms to put signals or indications of a handover from buyers to sellers and vice versa on the chart for you to trade along with the resulting price movement.
Currently, the longer-term market direction is ambiguous, and we prefer shorter-term trading over longer-term engagement. Hence, day trading and swing trading are in focus.
More than 85% of the orders routed through the exchanges are institutional-based. Thus, the prominent stakeholders’ typical behavior and algorithms define the happening of the markets, and we are assuming crowd behavior: Followers are jumping in the chosen direction of leaders. Thus, our systems ask for confirmed entry price levels. Then, with the help of a price-move-model, a high probable future price move is predicted: By the NLT Speed Unit (SPU), our systems define a future price-point in the natural distribution of prices (following the Markov principle), and when this is reached, we take an exit. The trade orientation is relatively short-term: one to ten bars, and does not follow longer-term price patterns. The trade duration is either defined by a time-based chart or the NLT Timeless Chart, where only price behavior is recorded and builds the basis to predict the future price happening.
The Price Move Model of NeverLossTrading
With our mathematical models expressed in our software, we measure the setup stage of a price move to come and assume prices accumulate before a price move. Our indicators identify this stage by estimating the price-, volume- and volatility development with the NLT-specific market pressure model. In the next phase, prices test the high/low of a price range before the breakout. Alarm settings on the chart indicate when such a situation occurs. Finally, the system notifies you about the price breakout potential, and:
- It is either confirmed – and we trade along with it.
- Or it is not confirmed – and we stay out of the trade.
With NeverLossTrading, we built a natural behavior model, which considers repetitive action in the behavior of leaders and “crowd behavior”: The crowd is following the leaders. Then, we translated this into a trading plan with our mathematical models, which gives us defined entries, exits, stops, or price adjustment levels.
Let us share some examples:
- Stock Trading Examples
Soon, we will be writing the year 2022, where home computers and servers are powerful to process vast amounts of data in real-time. Such, you do not have to screen through hundreds of charts; with the suitable instruments on hand, you can shorten your fairway to trading success.
Here is an example of a simple dashboard relating the expected price move with a reward/risk concept:
Let us jointly read left to right:
- SPU in gray identifies that the price move is average; cyan indicates excessive and orange rising price momentum.
- $7.67 is the expected price move of the underlying stock, and 2.5 identifies the return on cash of a $7.67 price move.
- Trend 25 in blue identifies a slight uptrend, and when you trade this situation, take profit when the stock price reaches $318.02 and place a stop or price adjustment action at $304.14.
- When you trade like this, you expect for every dollar of risk a $1.30 of a return.
Simple and easy to read, now you see it magnified on the AAPL price chart:
Daily AAPL NLT Top-Line Chart Example
Now you understand how modern computer technology can help you as a trader to take meaningful decisions right from the chart: You trade what you see!
It is your system’s duty, help you find underlying changes in supply and demand, paint those on your charts, and give you market scanners that let you find those opportunities without the need for going through hundreds of charts. Our systems work on all time frames: Another example of AAPL on a monthly chart.
AAPL Monthly NLT Top-Line Chart
You see five highlighted situations that we analyze in detail for you.
| Situation | Actions |
| Situation-1 | Long trade by the price threshold: Buy > $190.37, being surpassed in the next candle. Trade for a maximum of five bars or to the price target. The trade started in an NLT Light Tower and ended there (candle with the cyan dot). |
| Situation-2 | No trade. The signal/direction is not supported by the lower study. |
| Situation-3 | Long trade for a maximum of five bars or exit at the NLT Box Line. |
| Situation-4 | Long trade for a maximum of five bars. |
| Situation-5 | Short trade to target. |
Our brand name derives from the concept of repairing a trade instead of accepting a stop loss; however, Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.
TradeColors.com is our introductory system to high probability trading. We always allow for upgrades; you only pay the difference if you start with TradeColors.com and upgrade after.
TradeColors.com works by specifying potential trade situations by a two-candle color code: two of a kind and the high of two blue candles or the low of two red candles surpassed in the price movement of the next candle leads to a trade.
Let us share an example:
IWM on a Six Month Daily TradeColors.com Chart
The chart highlighted in orange trade situations confirmed by the next candle’s price move. In total, by following the system mechanically, eleven winning and two losing trades were achieved in six months.
From a return on investment perspective, you were looking at about 2.5% return on cash per instance with the same risk amount. This would have totaled up to 11 x 2.5% – 2 x 2.5% = 22.5% return in six month, not considering compounding interest. When we are not compounding interest
We included a new bottom indicator on the above chart and offer it as a year-end special for new subscribers.
Many of our clients purchase more than one system: Our systems are productivity tools, and by combining them, you produce a higher participation rate and higher returns.
After demonstrating some swing- and longer-term trading examples on stocks, let us lead to Futures trading.
- Futures Trading Examples
If you are not considering futures trading by today, let us quickly give you in a short overview the advantages futures trading can provide you:
We hope this simple graphic explains why futures trading is essential as an investment vehicle. However, there is another dimension to it: You can protect your assets using futures contracts for overnight hedging, and we explain all this and more in our mentorships.
The E-Mini S&P 500 Contract is a forerunner of the S&P 500 index and trades around the clock six days a week. It is a leveraged product, and you only have to bring up a fraction of the margin to participate and trade the index. Let us show you a recent daily chart:
ES, NLT Daily Trend Catching Chart, Oct/Nov. 2021
From left to right:
- Sell < $4317.3, not confirmed in the price movement of the next candle, no trade.
- Floating Up, Buy > $4437.3, confirmed and came to target three candles after. By not entering at an exit candle, we neglect Buy C > $4517.5.
- Re-Entry at Floating Up, Buy C > $4543.3. Target reached three candles in the trade.
- Re-Entry at Floating Up, Buy C > $4603.5. Target reached after three candles in the trade.
- All other signals were not confirmed, and it is vital to stay out of a trade when no direction price pressure carries the trade to target. Therefore, we aim to produce income or a return, not to trade the trade.
Combining NLT Timeless and Time-Based signals increases your participation rate and investment opportunity for returns.
With the help of our systems, we help retail traders to decide at trade entry for five significant challenges to prevent the common mistakes:
- Trade entry decisions (when to trade)
- Exit decisions (where to take profit)
- Stops (where to place them)
- Maximum time in a trade (specified by the signal)
- Risk to reward (only trade at favorable setups)
With the NLT Timeless Concept, we introduced a new way of trading in 2021, and it can change your life as a trader, giving you unique entry and exit points, hard to predict for other market participants. We dissect time-based moves into price-based happenings with the NLT Timeless concept. Let me share a chart example:
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract on December 1, 2021
The chart shows multiple trading opportunities, and you decide on those by rules we share with you in the mentorship. Those rules help you separate good from risky trades and provide one basis for our high probability setups. Let me give you an example:
In a short environment, the first leg wrong is wrong!
Explanation: When asset prices are dropping, you do not want to focus on a v-shape recovery; hence, you do not trade the first leg up, assuming it is just short-covering; however, you will trade the second leg up and act the same way on rising prices. Combining this pattern view with the indications you see on the chart paves your way to finding and working on high probability setups.
In the chart above, we shared nine winning trades, had you did not consider not trading the first leg, the trading day would have ended in nine winning (75%) and three losing trades (25%).
With the help of the NLT Timeless Concept, we cut the daily development into managerial portions with limited risk and defined expectations. Here is the referring daily chart:
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract, October 15 to December 1, 2021
The chart includes our latest development: the NLT SPU Move Indicator, which is an addition to the NLT Systems. It works as a standalone and in conjunction with other NLT systems. As a year-end special, we offer to include this indicator for free if you sign up with us in 2021: a $3,997 value.
Experience how our systems work in a consulting hour:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo.
We are happy to hear back from you!
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
How to Trade into and During 2022
Experience the best appropriate strategies that fit today’s market environment in a 45-minute video with multiple examples. Click here to watch the video.
This video is part of a four-speaker event hosted by InvestorExpos on December 2, 2021.
We are happy of helping you to find which of our systems and mentorships suit you best:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo.
Good trading,
Thomas
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Best Stock Trading Potentials 2022
Learn, who moves the financial markets and how you can spot and follow their market moves.
Continue Reading December 4, 2021 at 5:58 am Leave a comment
Identify and Trade Money Moves
Stocks and other assets are changing hands daily, offering you the opportunity to participate at crucial price turning points.
The average holding period for stocks is constantly shrinking, based on data from the NYSE, and Europe is showing the same tendency.
However, for you as a private investor, this is good news: it offers more opportunities than threats; when you have the right mindset and a system that tells you where money flows: This allows you to beat the best fund managers.
Let us drill deeper by asking, who are the critical asset holders?
By category, we highlight the following key asset holders*:
*Data based on the research of Nobel Living, LLC
When considering that fund managers are operating by comparing their performance with the stock market indexes, you directly recognize who holds assets long-term and why.
On the other hand, Prop-Traders, act on a much shorter holding time and produce shorter-term exchanges of assets. They employ the best analysts and make the shift changes you can spot and follow as a retail trader when you have the proper instruments on hand. The fund managers follow prop-trader-initiated shift changes in the composition of an index. Hence, money flows in and out of assets daily and intraday, leaving a trace you can follow. Your significant advantage: you can open and close positions much faster than institutions can. By the magnitude of their holdings, they have to scale in and out, not radically changing the asset price.
Here is the price move model we follow, and it considers all we said above:
NeverLossTrading Price Move Model
Theory: Key asset holders will have a solid need to re-balance their inventories. Thus, at a particular price expansion, they will either float- or shorten supply, which will result in an opposite directional price move that will then take away from our profits. Knowing this, we pre-calculate how far the expected price move will reach, and there we take profit, assuming it will retrace or reverse after.
Hence, we let the market and institutions appraise the stocks price journey and latch on, entering and exiting positions faster than institutions can.
Our brand name derives from the concept of repairing a trade instead of accepting a stop loss; however, Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy.
TradeColors.com is our introductory system to high probability trading. We always allow for upgrades; you only pay the difference if you start with TradeColors.com and upgrade after.
Many of our clients purchase more than one system: Our systems are productivity tools, and by combining them, you produce a higher participation rate and higher returns.
Our tool to calculate the expected price move is the SPU = Speed Unit, and it indicates how far a price move shall reach until it comes to an end.
With our systems, you can operate with conditional buy-stop and sell-stop OCO orders (one-cancels-the-other). Without the need to be in front of your computer for the orders to execute. You enter by price thresholds, ensuring that other market participants have the same directional assumption as you do and exit at the SPU target or adjust the trade at the stop.
By a change in the frequency and amplitude of the price movement over time, we specify indications to act on high probability price turning points, applying mechanical rules rather than leaving room for interpretation.
With the help of the NeverLossTrading indicators, we report changes in supply and demand and multiple levels, time-based and based on pre-defined price moves and report the happenings:
- On a monthly level,
- Weekly level,
- Daily,
- 4-Hour based,
We share the price thresholds: buy > or sell < through our alerts, or you can find them on your own with the help of system-related market scanners or watch list indicators.
We cover all asset classes: Stocks, Options, Futures, FOREX.
As a retail trader, you have multiple opportunities for:
- Day trading (opening and closing positions the same day)
- Swing trading (holding position for multiple days)
- Longer-term investing (holding positions for weeks and months)
You can act with a high probability price move model on key price turning points based on clearly defined risk-limiting strategies.
Never be late for a trade: NLT Alerts…click.
Our alerts spell out information on multi-levels, and we are happy to explain what they can do for you.
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Alerts
Important will be that you can do a chart validation with the help of our systems.
Let us share some chart examples:
AAPL, Weekly NLT Trend Catching + Timeless Indicators
From left to right, you see the following:
- Buy > $132.55 with the word Floating above. This signal identifies a price breakout potential and is a new addition for subscribers to the NLT Timeless concept that also can be used on timeless charts, helping traders to find strong price move potentials. The trade came to target in two candles: gray dot on the chart.
- Buy C > $145.65, which is a continuation signal, identifying a potential re-entry into the developing price trend. By the AAPL earnings conference in the week of 7/26/2021, you had two choices: Either exiting the trade two days before the announcement (which is our typical behavior) or carrying the trade out based on: reconfirming signal, Buy > $149.44. We shared in a separate publication our rules of how we trade over earnings, and you can read the details on our blog.
- Sell T < $ 145.76 combined with a Floating Down signal are two new additions for NLT Timeless subscribers helping you to trade at key price turning points, here to the downside and the trade came to target in a matter of two candles.
We constantly develop our systems forward, which does not mean you need to upgrade. Still, you can add new opportunities to your existing charts and increase your accuracy and participation rate.
MCD, Daily Trend Catching Chart, June – Nov. 2021
From left to right, you see:
- Sell < $244.18 with a Floating Down indication. The direction was confirmed and came to target in the next candle.
- Sell T < $229.29. The signal was confirmed, and by our rules, we left the trade two days before the earnings announcement with a profit.
- Buy > $246.08 with a Floating Up indication, confirmed direction and target reached, two candles later.
- Buy C > $251.15. A trend continuation signal, reaching its target in two candles.
- Buy > $253.72. This signal was not confirmed in the price movement of the next candle, and no trade was conducted.
The chart shows, we follow clear-cut rules for entry, exit, risk/reward. The stop is indicated by a red crossbar, allowing you to condition buy-stop and sell-stop OCO (one cancels the other) orders, with no need for you to be in front of your computer at entry or exit.
Trading by one dimension works as follows:
- If the buy/sell threshold: Buy > or Sell < is fulfilled by 2% of an SPU leads to a trade entry
- Exit, when a 1-SPU price move is concluded (taken off the NLT Speedometer box on the top left of the NLT charts)
- Stop at the red crossbar on the trade initiation candle
- Buy-stop, sell stop orders with OCO bracket, executed from the active trader or trade ladder: 1-SPU-wide OCO order with adjusting the stop
- If you open and close more than three positions the same day in one week, pattern day trading with account holdings above $25,000 is required by SEC regulation
- Options trading the chart happening is taught on demand, and we specify with you: Strike price to choose, time to expiration, the maximum premium to pay and expected return at target
- Goal: More winning than losing trades and longer runs, so risk and reward are in a favorable balance
- Never enter a trade at the exit candle.
- Enter a trade two days before earnings and do not open a new position at the day after earnings.
- In case you trade this concept with an IRA, take long stock trading opportunities only and try to cover short opportunities through Put option trades (we teach you how in our mentorship programs).
- Mechanical rules will be shared when you sign up with the NeverLossTrading education program.
Those are not many to learn compared to traffic rules, and you sure know how to manage a vehicle in traffic.
After demonstrating some swing- and longer-term trading examples on stocks, let us lead to Futures trading.
If you are not considering futures trading by today, let us quickly give you in a short overview the advantages futures trading can provide you:
We hope this simple graphic explains why futures trading is essential as an investment vehicle. However, there is another dimension to it: You can protect your assets using futures contracts for overnight hedging, and we explain all this and more in our mentorships.
The E-Mini S&P 500 Contract is a forerunner of the S&P 500 index and trades around the clock six days a week. It is a leveraged product, and you only have to bring up a fraction of the margin to participate and trade the index. Let us show you a recent daily chart:
ES, NLT Daily Trend Catching Chart, Oct/Nov. 2021
From left to right:
- Sell < $4317.3, not confirmed in the price movement of the next candle, no trade.
- Floating Up, Buy > $4437.3, confirmed and came to target three candles after. By not entering at an exit candle, we neglect Buy C > $4517.5.
- Re-Entry at Floating Up, Buy C > $4543.3. Target reached three candles in the trade.
- Re-Entry at Floating Up, Buy C > $4603.5. Target reached after three candles in the trade.
- All other signals were not confirmed, and it is important to stay out of a trade when no direction price pressure carries the trade to target. Therefore, we aim to produce income or a return, not to trade the trade.
Combining NLT Timeless and Time-Based signals increases your participation rate and opportunity to invest for returns.
With the help of our systems, we help retail traders to decide at trade entry for the five significant challenges they face to prevent the common mistakes often made:
- Trade entry decisions (when to trade)
- Exit decisions (where to take profit)
- Stops (where to place them)
- Maximum time in a trade (specified by the signal)
- Risk to reward (only trade at favorable setups)
Challenge us for your year-end special and schedule your consulting hour:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Demo.
We are happy to hear back from you,
Thomas Barmann (inventor and founder of NeverLossTrading)
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Why and How to Trade the Earnings Season?
Stocks experience strong price moves when publicly-traded companies deliver their quarterly earnings reports. We share a systematic approach, how you can spot and participate in those opportunities as a retail trader with the help of our algorithms.
Trading Psychology and Systems
Experience in a Podcast and Article what is needed to reach your trading and investing goals in the years to come.
Continue Reading November 2, 2021 at 4:16 am Leave a comment
Anticipate Price Action for High Probability Trading
Join the world of high probability trading by combining an existing system with the newly developed NLT SPU Move Indicator to trade at critical price turning points.
Continue Reading October 12, 2021 at 7:24 am Leave a comment
Trading the Frequency of Price Change
Summary: What is the basis of your decision-making in trading and investing? Many retail traders assume or guess. We invite you to trade with mechanical rules at crucial price turning points and introduce a new and affordable indicator. Watch the video and read the details below.
Buyers and sellers move the market; whoever has the upper hand moves the market in their direction. So, right from our research desk, we introduce a new indicator that measures the frequency and amplitude of financial market transactions to determine when buyers hand it over to sellers and vice versa for you to trade at significant price turning points.
Prices determine the equilibrium of the offer between buyers and sellers and specify where an asset transaction takes place. In simple words: if buyers want to buy at $100 and sellers only sell at $101, no equilibrium is found, and no transaction takes place.
In trading, we refer to the buyers and sellers offer in the terms “Bid and Ask,” signifying the two-way price quotation that indicates the best possible price at which a security can be sold and bought at a given point in time:
- The bid price represents the maximum price a buyer is willing to pay for a share of stock or other security.
- The ask price represents the minimum price that a seller is willing to take for that same security.
- A trade or transaction occurs when a buyer is willing to pay the best offer available—or when a seller is willing to sell at the highest bid.
The difference between the bid and ask prices: “The Spread” is a crucial indicator of the liquidity of the asset. In general, the smaller the spread, the better the liquidity.
The offer on the bid and ask side of assets is in constant motion, and so is the frequency of the price equilibrium, and such, it builds a measurable entity. Our algorithms measure the frequency and amplitude of this motion to create directional price indications.
The Speed of transactions measures the rate of a price change, and we refer to it as the frequency. The frequency changes asset to asset and by the time frame of observation, and we measure three stages:
- Average historical volatility or statistical volatility (gray lower squares), signifying the average expected rate of exchange at the observed timeframe
- Impulse volatility (cyan color squares): By a strong impulse (supply or demand-based), the exchange frequency of an asset increased, showing an instant breakout. Buyers or sellers move the market, creating an impulse
- Continued strongly increasing vibration (orange color squares): A high exchange frequency continues after the impulse shock.
We added this color code on the bottom of our newly developed study and highlighted candles with impulse volatility by a cyan square and cyan highlight of the bar.
Frequency Modulation (FM) encodes information in a carrier wave by changing the instantaneous frequency of the wave to transport the signal by a rapid carrier wave. FM radio is commonly known, and the technology is also used in computing, telecommunications, and signal processing: a field we have an excellent understanding of. For example, we took the basis of signal transmission to decode the signals given by the financial markets as a basis of their transactions to initiate directional trades.
NLT Frequency of Change Indicator
Here is how it looks and is interpreted on a live chart example we will use going forward with the lower study:
| Situation-1: Average price move, 7/20 to 8/13/2021. The impact volatility measured did not lead to a continued high frequency of exchange | Situation-2: Impulse and increased frequency of transactions or exchange | Situation-3: Average price moves or volatility and no change by the measured impulse volatility | Situation-4: Impulse volatility led to a continued high rate of exchange. |
With a statistical function, we measure the average amplitude of the prices where an exchange of assets took place and specify what we call the SPU. The SPU is used to determine critical factors in trading:
- How far will the expected price move most probably reach
- How much wiggle room to give the price offer, so you are not getting stopped to bring your trade to target
With our newly developed indicator, we measure price changes where buyers take over from sellers and vice versa to spell out price thresholds that need to be confirmed in the price continuation of the next candle to enter into a trade: Buy > or Sell <.
In such an environment, you are not guessing; you act on clearly defined rules. But, unfortunately, many retail traders never invest in learning a different way of trading; they try to win today’s formula-1 race with world war II technology and decision-making. Definitively, not what will give you an edge in trading: Always consider, there is a 95% likelihood that the other side of your trade is filled by a professional who is prepared and ready to take your money.
We encourage you only to trade if other market participants invest or sell the same asset. Following this model allows us to operate with buy-stop and sell-stop OCO orders (One Cancels Other Order): A simple way to enter and exit your orders without needing you to be in front of your computer at order entry or exit. To do so, we want to introduce you to the concept where the system specifies the natural price movement of the observed asset. When a price movement initiates, it defines how far it shall reach to take a positive exit. In the same way, it defines the stop level, considering the statistical volatility.
By the way, our concepts of adjusting the trade instead of taking the stop loss gave us the name Never Stop Loss Trading, but it was a bit lengthy.
NeverLossTrading Price Move Model
We also understand that key asset holders will have a solid need to re-balance their inventories. Thus, at a particular price expansion, they will either float- or shorten supply, which will result in an opposite directional price move that will then take away from our profits. Knowing this, we pre-calculate how far the expected price move will reach, and there we take profit, assuming it will retrace or reverse after.
Our tool to calculate the expected price move is the SPU = Speed Unit
What is your take away:
- By a changing the frequency and amplitude of the price movement over time, we specify indications to act on high probability price turning points, applying mechanical rules rather than leaving room for interpretation.
- The NLT system defines the SPU (Speed Unit), indicating how far a price move shall reach until it comes to an end.
- Operate with conditional buy-stop and sell-stop orders, ensuring that other market participants have the same directional assumption that your system spells out.
How can this be expressed on a chart?
We put the frequency and amplitude of exchange into a lower study that can either be traded as a standalone decision-making tool or together with the other NLT indicators and studies.
The NLT SPU Move Indicator measures the price movement over time, constantly adjusting to actual. This study shows when a potential directional price change is likely to happen:
- When Momentum Change and Statistical Impulse Volatility come together: Red and Blue arrows point towards the possible breakout direction. Chart bubbles with Buy > or < Sell signals and arrows indicate potential price turning points for a trade, under the condition that the next candle ticks out the price threshold.
- Clouds: Red Clouds show areas of statistical price volatility contraction, Blue Clouds signify price volatility expansion.
- The lower square-dot line indicates by color when impulse volatility happens (cyan) and is continued (orange) or falls back to average (gray). Orange triangles above the bars indicate yield signs for a potential breakout to come without any directional bias.
NLT SPU Move Indicator Study, 8/2 to 9/20, 2021
Let us magnify and section out the observed timeframe into two separate charts to describe the trade rules, and later we bring this lower study together with a price chart.
Section-1 NLT SPU Move Indicator, 8/26 6o 9/20/2021
The graph shows three price move indications expressed through Buy and Sell thresholds:
- Buy > $450,72, had impulse volatility (cyan), and then volatility slowed down to average expected (gray dots). The buy threshold got confirmed in the next candle and led to a trade for 1-SPU in four candles (here four days).
- The signal, Buy > $448.49, was not confirmed, and no trade was initiated.
- The sell threshold of the last candle was due for confirmation at the time of writing and led to a short trade.
Section-2 NLT SPU Move Indicator, 8/2 to 8/26/2021
The graph shows:
- Buy > $441.37 was not confirmed. The impulse volatility increase went back to average after initiation.
- Sell < $440.79 was confirmed in the continuation of the next day. The signal led to a trade for the 1-SPU target at an increased volatility rate.
When you hover over the study, it will tell you the actual SPU, bar-by-bar. Check for the cyan color second indication of the current candle at $3.69.
The above example references the price development of SPY, the ETF for the S&P 500 Index, and demonstrates how we measure and trade for a pre-defined price change in distance and time:
Trades will be closed either at the pre-defined SPU-move or after the maximum number of candles in the trade: A two-dimensional positive exit strategy.
The SPU-measure defines the price change you trade for, and you only act on acceptable reward to risk setups.
A big takeaway for retail traders:
You are not in the business of trading; you are in the business of making money by investing in favorable setups.
Many retail traders that come to trading with a solid work attitude overtrade. The work in trading is in preparation.
Here is how the lower study looks together with a price chart:
NLT SPY Chart 7/29 to 9/17/2021
NLT Chart Review
| Entry Rule | Signal | Signal Confirmation | Result |
| Situation-1 Buy > $441.37 | The signal came at a crucial price turning point to the upside | The price direction was not ticked out by the price movement of the next candle | No trade was initiated |
| Situation-2 Buy < $440.79 | A signal at a crucial price turning point to the downside | The signal got confirmed and led to a trade | A $4.52 gain was accomplished at the open of 8/19 by an OCO order. The expected SPU was $2.80 |
| Situation-3 Buy > $450.72 | Upside breakout point. | By a gap <1/2-SPU, the trade direction was confirmed and led to a trade | After five days in the trade reached its 1-SPU target: +$3.45 |
| Situation-4 Buy > $448.48 | Upside potential | The price direction was not ticked out by the price movement of the next candle | No trade was initiated |
| Situation- Sell < 440.94 | Downside potential | Not confirmed at the day of writing | Open |
We utilize three dimensions to specify when to exit a trade:
- When a 1-SPU price move from entry is accomplished
- At the closing of the fives day in a trade, when the 1-SPU price move is not reached
 | By a two-dimensional positive exit strategy, trades will be closed either at the pre-defined SPU-move or after the maximum number of candles in the trade: |
- At the stop: You will learn where to put the stop in training when signing up for the new indicators
The SPU-measure defines the price change you trade for, and you only act on the acceptable reward to risk setups, and we teach you the details in training after signing up for using the new indicator.
Does this work for lower timeframes and other assets too?
Let us stay in the index arena and switch over to the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract on a 15-minute example:
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract, 30 Minute Chart Example
You see on the chart a combination of NLT TradeColors.com and the new NLT SPU Move Indicator. The two systems supplement each other and help you get either early into a potential developing price move or giving you a second chance to trade. In combination, the two systems give you double the opportunities to participate in trades, a definitive productivity advantage you want to realize.
The NLT SPU Move Indicators works similarly together with other NLT Systems like:
- NLT Top-Line
- NLT HF
- NLT Trend Catching
Again, let me give you chart examples:
AAPL Daily Chart of TradeColors.com and SPU Move
By the NLT SPU Move Indicator, you were alerted that a move is setting up. However, it was not confirmed the next day, but through the two-candle-color-combination of the TradeColors.com indicator on the second day.
Again: We want to trade when other market participants confirm directional price moves.
TradeColors.com is our entry-level program into algorithmic trading. To learn more about it, visit this link.
We have a special offer for you: The new indicator will be added for free when you sign during our yearend promotion to TradeColors.com or any other NeverLossTrading Mentorship. The standalone value is $3,997.
How does that sound?
Be part of the NeverLossTrading community and trade the markets with high probability systems.
contact@NeverLossTrading.com and let us know a good day and time to agree on the details, and we are looking forward to hearing back from you.
What if you already use TradeColors.com or another NLT System?
Then you only pay half or $1,997 for the Indicator installation and one hour of training.
Does this indicator also help when you trade with the NLT Timeless concept?
Yes, it does:
- As an early price move entry indicator, and you can pickaback and increase the trade target when a signal occurs in the next candle
- As confirming lower study for a price chart signal
/ES Timeless NLT Swing Trading Chart
In three cases, the new indicator confirmed the existing price NLT Trend Catching signal and two times allowed for an early entry into a directional trade. When you enter early into a price move, it gives you the significant advantage of aiming for a double income and trading for an advanced reward/risk relation.
As a productivity measure, it added 2-times a 1-SPU opportunity to a 4-SPU expectation: 50% productivity increase.
Talk to us and experience in an online meeting what our systems can do for you. Schedule a free consulting hour:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj.: Consulting
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
Five Dimensions of Trading and Investing Decisions
Follow our free publications and webinars…sign up here, and we are looking forward to hearing back from you,
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Successful Trading Skills
Dear Reader,
If humankind could learn from a book…
Even when it is written black on white, we somehow have a hard time changing our lives. Change is inevitable; however, we mostly only move out of our comfort zone when we are forced to, replicating the law of inertia of physics.
We want to inspire you as a trader and investor to make a move and experience a new way of trading.
Take the chance to download our free eBook and do not just store it on your computer or phone; read it! Thirty-four pages of inspiration and an invitation to be a game-changer and make a difference to your trading and investing future.
Only up for short…download your free copy. No strings attached, just a free download.
We share the knowledge of decades of trading experience and more than ten years of trading education.
With the NeverLossTrading concepts and education programs, we want to help you de-complex trading decisions and come to high probability trading by solving the challenges with the help of our systems on the spot.
Five Dimensions of Trading and Investing Decisions
Follow our free publications and webinars…sign up here, and we are looking forward to hearing back from you,
Thomas
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Predictability in Trading
Summary: let me invite you to a new way of trading, and I cannot express it all in a minute, but give me fourteen, and it might change your world as a trader or investor. Read on and watch the video.
More than 95% of the trading decisions derive from time-based charts that compare price development over time. Hence, it is pretty clear where most of the stops will sit, and you sure experienced situations where your stops were getting triggered and right after the market commences in your expected direction.
How to change this? Enter the world of price-based decisions based on NLT Timeless Charts.
Our brand name NeverLossTrading derives from a concept of trade repair and not taking the stop. Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy. The basis of our concepts are high probability setups that also work on time-based charts, but today, we want to invite you to eliminate time and act differently.
Let me give you a bit of background:
We are more than ten years in business. Our algo-trading parameters are back-tested using available historical and real-time data to demonstrate that we provide viable trading strategies.
Most algo-trading today is high-frequency trading (HFT), which attempts to capitalize on placing a large number of orders at rapid speeds across multiple markets and multiple decision parameters based on preprogrammed instructions; however, this is not what we do. We call our systems and strategies Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction: You remain the captain of your trading decisions. We propose to only act on meaningful time frames for price changes that keep trading costs, composed of commissions and slippage, in an acceptable range.
We customize our programs and mentorships to your wants and needs and highly recommend striving for multiple income streams rather than on one single strategy.
Systematic trading is our focus, and we share strategies for time-based and timeless setups.
At this point, you might ask yourself what timeless means?
Time is not a critical element, assuming that markets quickly adjust to a supply or demand change. Considering this, we developed algorithms that purely look at price change as a decisive factor. We take the price change to trade for from a time-based SPU. SPU stands for Speed Unit, a measure of expected price change over time, a measure of statistical volatility. Instead of explaining the nature and calculation of SPU, let us black-box the SPU and show how NLT Timeless investment charts can help you make high probability decisions in the financial markets.
Acting with predictable moves is rarely a winning strategy.
If you use a dynamic, less predictable entry, exit, and stop definition, you certainly have the chance to increase your trading accuracy.
With NLT Timeless Trading, time is taken out of cohesion. This will make your decisions less predictable; however, the stronger argument of the idea is:
We are helping you to simplify your trading decisions by specifying conditions to execute bracket or OCO orders along with the price movement of underlying assets.
The system works for all asset classes: Stocks, Futures, and FOREX.
What we casually named variables are, in reality, results of an underlying change in supply and demand. In the base economic principle, price is a result of a shift in supply and demand. Time is not considered a determining factor. The model assumes that markets regulate themselves instantaneously by economic principles.
The typical problem for a trader is: In hindsight, you know what happened, and we want to help you predict the future price happening with high predictability and frequently by our systems and concepts.
Money flow accepts price as the resulting variable of a change in supply and demand and specifies potential price move setups with clearly defined:
- Entries (price threshold)
- Exits (targets)
- Stops (wrong assumption)
With our systems and strategies, we want to help you to higher accuracy:
- Only accepting a trade when the direction is confirmed
- Exiting at a pre-defined target, prevening for the price to pull back and taking your profits away before you realize them
- Choosing an adequate stop so you are not taken out of a trade by a too-tight stop and keeping reward and risk in a meaningful balance.
A Quick tip: buyers and sellers move the market; whoever has the upper hand moves the market in their direction.
Let us show you why by a chart example, using a combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching indicators focusing on Futures trading examples.
/ES NLT Timeless Investing Chart
With NLT Timeless Investing, we anticipate holding positions between one to five weeks, striving for targets above 100 Points (a price change of the underlying E-Mini contract ≥ $5,000).
From September 2020 to the end of July 2021, multiple trade situations were painted on the chart by the NLT Timeless Indicators. By following the rules, the trade exit was either at target, stop or at the close of candle #5. The chart shows eight trade situations
- Seven winners
- One loss
The NLT Timeless trading concept lets you act different, unpredictable and at high probability setups, with pre-specified reward/risk scenarios, providing you with opportunities for:
- Day Trading (multiple trades per day)
- Swing Trading (holding between one and five days)
- and Longer-Term Investing (holding for one to five weeks)
We definitively prefer and recommend taking part in each of those trade perspectives, producing multiple streams of income.
NLT Timeless Swing Trading Example
NLT Timeless Day Trading Example
We can only show that much in an article and hope we caught your interest.
Be a game-changer and schedule your personal introduction hour: contact@NeverLossTrading.com to NLT Timeless Trading and experience how our systems work live.
We work one-on-one exclusively, and such, do not miss out; time is limited for timeless trading.
The important message, when you sign up with us, you learn time-based and timeless trading.
Our algorithmic trading concepts provide a more systematic approach to active trading than methods based on trader intuition or instinct.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you,
Thomas
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Free Trading and Investing Magazine
We like to invite you to read the Traders World Magazine #81 for free.
You will find several articles explaining what is needed for trading our days.
On page 43 forward, we will relate to:
High Probability Futures Trading
For questions:
Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com
Stay informed and subscribe to our free reports and webinars.
Good trading,
Thomas Barmann
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Why a Different Trading Strategy Pays Off
We want to invite you to a new trading concept and put the details in a short article with the offer to experience life, how this can work for you.
Let us compare trading to a chess game; when you know in advance your opponent’s next move, you act prepared and most likely win the match. Exactly how institutional investors act by understanding the pain thresholds and counteract others’ moves.
Are you familiar with situations where the price exactly came to your stop, and the moment you were stopped out, it moved in the desired direction? It happens because you act predictably.
Most traders decide from time-based charts, and this is where we help and invite you into the world of high probability trading by applying a different concept: NLT Timeless Trading.
Our brand name NeverLossTrading derives from a concept of trade repair and not taking the stop. Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy. The basis of our concepts are high probability setups that sure work on time-based charts, but today, we want to invite you eliminating time and acting differently.
Let me give you a bit of background:
We are more than ten years in business, and our Algo-trading parameters are back-tested using available historical and real-time data to demonstrate that we provide viable trading strategies.
Most algo-trading today is high-frequency trading (HFT), which attempts to capitalize on placing a large number of orders at rapid speeds across multiple markets and multiple decision parameters based on preprogrammed instructions; however, this is not what we do. We call our systems and strategies Algorithmic Trading with Human Interaction: You remain the captain of your trading decisions. We propose to only act on meaningful time frames for price changes that keep trading costs, composed of commissions and slippage, in an acceptable range.
We customize our programs and mentorships to your wants and needs and highly recommend striving for multiple income streams rather than on one single strategy.
Systematic trading is our focus, and we share strategies for time-based and timeless setups.
At this point, you might ask yourself what timeless means?
Time is not a critical element, assuming that markets quickly adjust to a supply or demand change. Considering this, we developed algorithms that purely look at price change as a decisive factor. We take the price change to trade for from a time-based SPU. SPU stands for Speed Unit, a measure of expected price change over time, a measure of statistical volatility. Instead of explaining the nature and calculation of SPU, let us black-box the SPU and show how NLT Timeless investment charts can help you make high probability decisions in the financial markets.
Acting with predictable moves is rarely a winning strategy.
If you use a dynamic, less predictable entry, exit, and stop definition, you certainly have the chance to increase your trading accuracy. Here is an overview of the most commonly used trading decisions.
Share of the Usage of Trading Decision Making Variables
With NLT Timeless Trading, time is taken out of cohesion. This will make your decisions less predictable; however, the stronger argument of the idea is:
We are helping you to simplify your trading decisions by specifying conditions to execute bracket or OCO orders along with the price movement of underlying assets.
The system works for all asset classes: Stocks, Futures, and FOREX.
What we casually named variables are, in reality, results of an underlying change in supply and demand. In the base economic principle, price is a result of a shift in supply and demand. Time is not considered a determining factor. The model assumes that markets regulate themselves instantaneously by economic principles.
The typical problem for a trader is: In hindsight, you know what happened, and we want to help you predict the future price happening with high predictability and frequently by our systems and concepts.
Money flow accepts price as the resulting variable of a change in supply and demand and specifies potential price move setups with clearly defined:
- Entries (price threshold)
- Exits (targets)
- Stops (wrong assumption)
With our systems and strategies, we want to help you to higher accuracy:
- Only accepting a trade when the direction is confirmed
- Exiting at a pre-defined target, prevening for the price to pull back and taking your profits away before you realize them
- Choosing an adequate stop so you are not taken out of a trade by a too-tight stop and keeping reward and risk in a meaningful balance.
A Quick tip: buyers and sellers move the market; whoever has the upper hand moves the market in their direction.
In this writeup, we focus on day trading and refer to swing trading or longer-term investing in separate documentation.
Let us show you why by a chart example, using a combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching indicators focusing on Futures trading examples.
/ES NLT Timeless Investing Chart
With NLT Timeless Investing, we anticipate holding positions between one to five weeks, striving for targets above 100 Points (a price change of the underlying E-Mini contract ≥ $5,000).
From September 2020 to the end of July 2021, multiple trade situations were painted on the chart by the NLT Timeless Indicators. By following the rules, the trade exit was either at target, stop or at the close of candle #5. The chart shows eight trade situations
- Six winners
- One loss
- One open trade
The NLT Timeless trading concept lets you act different, unpredictable and at high probability setups, with pre-specified reward/risk scenarios, providing you with opportunities for:
- Day Trading (multiple trades per day)
- Swing Trading (holding between one and five days)
- and Longer-Term Investing (holding for one to five weeks)
We definitively prefer and recommend taking part in each of those trade perspectives, producing multiple streams of income.
NLT Timeless Swing Trading Example
NLT Timeless Day Trading Example
We can only show that much in an article and hope we caught your interest.
Be a game-changer and schedule your personal introduction hour: contact@NeverLossTrading.com to NLT Timeless Trading and experience how our systems work life.
We work one-on-one exclusively, and such, do not miss out; time is limited for timeless trading.
The important message, when you sign up with us, you learn time-based and timeless trading.
Our algorithmic trading concepts provide a more systematic approach to active trading than methods based on trader intuition or instinct.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you,
Thomas
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Free Trading and Investing Webinar
Trading Your Way Through 2021
Join me along with other guest speakers on a LIVE webinar hosted by TradersExclusive on Wednesday, June 16, 2021. The webinar starts at 1 PM to 4:00 PM Eastern/New York Time.
Check Out The Guest List Below…
Presenters
12:00pm to 12:45pm CT (1pm to 1:45pm ET)
Volume Profile Simplified for Futures and Forex with 1000+ ticks/pips A Month
Simon Jousef of The Trader Institute
• Learn to utilize the markets true volume.
• Read the Volume correctly. (98% of people do this wrong)
• Learn to decrease your stops and increase your profits (Smart Stops)
• Learn how Simon uses his newest discovery of “Bank Levels” aka SAL indicator
12:45pm to 1:30pm CT (1:45pm to 2:30pm ET)
What Current Option Indicators Are Saying About the Market Now
Lawrence G. McMillan of McMillan Analysis Corp
Discuss the current state of his option-oriented indicators and what they are saying about the market now
● Structure trading indicators with option data (price and volume) to predict the movements of the broad stock market
● Discuss what these indicators are “saying” at the current time.
1:30pm to 2:15pm CT (2:30pm to 3:15pm ET)
How to Trade Like A Hedge Fund Trader
Alla Peters of Fibonacci Trading Institute
● Futures, Stocks, Commodities, Cryptocurrencies and Forex
● Think, Prepare and Trade ● Using The Alpha Fibonacci System
2:15pm to 3:00pm CT (3:15 pm to 4:00pm ET)
Timeless Swing and Day Trading
Thomas Barmann of NeverLossTrading
(a Division of Nobel Living LLC)
● Decide on your trades by system
● Define entry, exit, and stop signal
● Trade frequently
● Understand overall market patterns
Click Here to Register for the TradersExclusive Webinar
For questions:
Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com
Best regards,
Thomas Barmann
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Trading Webinar Invitation
Do you know the one thing that’s holding your trading back?
93% of successful professional traders said they would have FAILED without learning the tools they needed from other traders!
We want to share our newest developments and concepts to provide you with a wealth of trading knowledge from different trading perspectives.
On June 3, I am taking part in a 4-speakers Trading Educator Forum.
It’s all online, so you can join in from the comfort of your own home or office.
It’s also 100% Free and recorded. So make sure you click the link below to
attend (or if you can’t make it). Add this fantastic event to your trading library.
Join me, and let’s take your trading to the next level.
⇒ Click Here to instantly register for InvestorExpos.com ⇐
By clicking this link, you will automatically be registered to attend the event!
Here is the line-up for the online event:
11:00 AM EDT Norman Hallett “A Trader’s FEARS And How To Eliminate Them”
11:45 AM EDT Michael Rykse “Overnight Pop Trades – How To Win Five Different Ways Trading Options”.
12:30 PM EDT Jason Love “Learn to Trade Like a Casino”.
1:15 PM EDT Thomas Barmann “Algorithmic Futures Trading”.
For questions:
Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
Best regards,
Thomas
Disclaimer, Terms and Conditions, Privacy | Customer Support
Leveraged Trading Strategies
As a trader or investor, you have multiple ways to leverage your return on investments and still limit your risk, allowing you for above-market average returns: knowledge makes a difference!
Return on investment is the name of the financial market game. Return on investment (ROI) is a performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency or profitability of an investment or compare the efficiency of several different investments. To calculate ROI, the benefit or return of an investment is divided by the investment cost. Read or watch our video…click.
On a simple term, it looks like ROI is just a relation of two factors; however, multiple influencing variables determine the final result; let me list those briefly:
- Capital requirement builds the base or denominator of the formula and differs widely by asset and asset class.
- The asset price move determines the first component of the numerator and specifies the potential return
- The frequency of price change gives you an idea of how often you can expect to participate in price moves
- The probability or predictability assumes the likelihood of determining a potential trade situation in your favor
- Leverage indicates the amount of increased return expected by the movement of the underlying asset
- Engagement rate specifies how much of your capital works for producing a return
- Risk control defines if you and how far you can limit your trade risk or take an unbalance risk
The following graph lists the complexity to handle when striving for a return on investment in the financial markets.
Influencing Factors on ROI (Return on Investment)
We engage in trades from longer-term investments to day trading. Today and in this article, we want to focus on swing trading assets by holding positions between one and ten days.
- As a short-term stock trader, your average return per trade ranges between 2% and 5%. If you obtain portfolio margin, you can leverage your return on risk or capital engaged between 20% and 60%.
- As an options trader, you can strive for an average return on capital of 65% up with the appropriate strategy on hand. On the other hand, you also take a 100% risk on most of your investments, and you need to consider that you invest in time-decaying assets, requiring you to be right in direction and time.
- As a futures trader, you can trade highly leveraged instruments with stop-defined risks, producing between 15% and 50% return on maintenance margin, depending on the future you choose to trade.
The basis of producing constant returns from the financial markets is operating with a high probability system. Leveraged trading strategies are not commonly known but learnable, and we teach them in our mentorships.
Leveraged Trading Strategies Compared
| Method | Basis | Instruments | Execution | Risk Limit |
| Stock Trading with Portfolio Margin | You need to hold more than $125k and pass a test; then, you will only be accountable for the max risk of a position while you still trade for a pre-defined target, leveraging your return on capital engaged multifold | You can source from about 1,000 stocks, carrying options to limit the risk of each trade | One-click trade execution at entry and exit with maximum risk definition | Combining stocks with options to limit the risk per trade. Capping the max. risk to about double of where to meaningful place the stop |
| Options Trading | File for Options Level III with your broker and know what to do, and you can participate in leveraged trading opportunities | About 250 stocks offer you a meaningful options chain to trade | Multiple variables to cover in your strategy decision | Time decaying trading instruments with max risk control |
| Futures Trading | Open a futures account, and depending on your broker, reduced day trading margins apply while the maintenance margin comes in to play if you hold positions overnight | We assume 20 well tradable futures contracts providing you with tight bid/ask spread and minimum volume | Simple, one-click trade executions: long and short, while contract specific condition need to be considered | Potential overnight gaps can leverage the risk, while you can work around those by closing positions at the end of the day, re-opening them again at 6 p.m. ET and keep lower margins applied |
Let us build a quantitative model and appraise the three leveraged-return, swing trading methods, comparing at an average expected high-risk procedure. To appraise the three choices, we evaluate the average expected Return on Investment or Return on Capital (ROC) for a 55% system and a 65% system. The average expectancy of the trading system used by many retail traders is 55% (standard indicators like Moving Averages, MACD…); high probability systems start at attainment rates of 65% and require a different appraising basis and algorithm.
Conservative Return Expectations of Trading Strategies
| Method | 55% System | 65% System | Risk Limit |
| Leveraged Stock Trading | Zero income expectation ROC = 0.55 *50% – 1.2*50%*0.45 = 0.5% | ROC = 0.65 *50% – 1.2*50%*0.35 = 11.5% | Max stop at 1.2-times the reward |
| Options Trading | Negative return expectation ROI = -7% | ROC = 0.65*0.65-0.35*0.8= 14% | The average risk of trades going wrong is assumed at 80% of the premium invested |
| Futures Trading | Zero income expectation | ROC = 0.3*0.65-0.35*1.2= 14% | Risk limited by the stop setting at 1.2-times reward |
As expected, operating with a 55% system does not give you an edge as a private investor: Whatever you do, you are either trading water or even acting with a negative expectation. Yes, you can celebrate winners, but you will not make money long-term. The odds are staggered against you!
By our quantitative appraisal: Futures Trading is the winner, allowing for limited risk trading at an average expected weekly return rate of 14%, compared to an 11.5% expected return rate on trading stocks risk limited. Options trading also achieved a 14% potential weekly return rate potential; however, you have to be right in time and direction for achieving such return, which finally favors futures swing trading over options trading.
However, there is no king’s way: Futures have a limited choice of well-tradable contracts by volume and bid/ask spread, and if you want to keep your money constantly engaged in the financial markets, you might want to trade with more than one focus.
Why?
By focusing on multiple streams of income, your rate of money engaged will increase, so the returns you are striving for.
In our model, we included the following assumptions:
- At a 1.2-times risk to reward, you have the highest probability to bring a trade to target without facing the threat of being stopped, and the trade still commences in your expected direction.
- We assumed the worst-case scenario; it will not always be a 1.2-times risk to reward. You let the chart situation tell when to buy or sell.
- For a positive expectation, you need a high probability trading system with an attainment rate at or above 65%; else, you are not fit for making money long-term.
- Your system needs to produce hardcoded entry, exit, and stop signals: no room for interpretation.
If this is for you, we are here to work in our mentorships for extended periods to help you develop yourself into the trader/investor you want to be.
More than 85% of the transactions in the financial markets are institutionally based. Big money decides for the supply and demand side of the trading business. Our system and indicators observe underlying changes in supply and demand to extrapolate price move potentials with a high probability of ≥ 65% for coming to target when initiated.
Based on broker-published data, 76% of retail traders are losing money. However, 24% are making money, and for you to be part of those, there are specific principles to follow.
Here are the top ten primary edges profitable traders have over their competition, separated by system and trade management.
System-Based Decisions
- Trading the price action as it plays out has better odds than operating with opinions and predictions.
- Backtested signals that worked in the past have better odds of success in the future than guessing which way the market will go.
- Operate with system-based entry, exit, and stop conditions that are hardcoded with no room for interpretation.
Trade Management
- A trader with a trading plan will usually beat a trader with no plan. A trading plan guides the trader in making fact-based decisions rather than emotional ones.
- Traders who are patient with their winning trades will have bigger wins than traders who take profits early.
- Considering statistical volatility by putting your stop loss in a spot that is unlikely to be triggered gives your trades time to work out without being prematurely stopped out during average volatility.
- Following repetitive patterns of the markets gives you an edge over the traders that do not know about those patterns.
- Only accept trades where the reward/risk relation of your system provides a long-term income opportunity.
- Define the position size of your trade percentage based, which prevents drawdowns.
- Discipline: Be prepared to trade and follow your plan daily without exceptions.
We are tackling all those dimensions of trading in our mentorship programs, so you learn what to do and how to be part of the successful long-term traders.
Dimensions of Knowledge Building and Behavior
Our charts and indicators build the basis, but there is more to learn and teach than just following price indications. Here are some examples of our latest developed risk-limiting trading concept based on NeverLossTrading Top-Line and Trend Catching:
GS Daily NLT Top-Line Chart, April 21 to May 10, 2021
The chart shows two trade situations:
Situation-1:
Buy > $335.70, and the trade direction was confirmed in the price development of the next candle. On the current signal, the 2-SPU target was reached on 4/29. The system anticipated a max of ten days to get to the target.
Situation-2:
Buy > $359.14; which was confirmed in the price development of May 5, 2021. The system assumed the 2-SPU target (dot on the chart) to be reached in 1-10 bars. In the actual situation, the trade was closed on the third day by reaching its target.
You could follow the trade direction either by trading the stock or by choosing an options strategy. The system specified clearly defined trade entry, exit, and stop conditions for both situations: Stops at 2% of 1-SPU below the trade indicating candle.
In both situations, we see a pullback of the price development. By following NeverLossTrading Top-Line rules, you were able to exit the trade before the pullback and harvest on the directional price move.
The average expected return of a 2-SPU price move is 2 x 2.1% = 4.2% for a stock trade. In our mentorships, we share how to leverage those returns drastically by:
- Stock trading in combination with options for 50% ROC
- Trading Call options instead of the stock for 65% ROC
A drastically increased income expectation for the trader who knows and applies those methods.
On the top left of the price chart, you find the SPU definition, which bar-by-bar will help you to define your expected price move. In addition, the system spells out the target and stop placement to evaluate the trade setup. The reading of 0.9 tells you that you would expect a $0.90 return for a dollar of risk to take if you invested at the current candle. In this case, an acceptable setup rather than a favorable one; however, the last candle on the chart does not carry a signal to trade, and we never enter at an exit candle.
Euro Futures, March 22 to May 11, 2021
Situation-1:
End of price move ambiguity and NLT Trend Catching Signal: Sell < $1,1812. The direction was confirmed, and the trade came to target on 3/30/2021 for a 30% return on maintenance margin in one day.
Situation-2:
Buy > $1,1872: a confirmed signal by the price movement of the next candle, reaching its target on April 7, 2021, for a 30% return on maintenance margin in two days.
Situation-3 and 4:
Confirmed buy signals and the trade targets (dot on the chart) were reached to continue the following days.
Situation-5:
Two days after entry, we were stopped by the price development reaching the red crossbar of the trade initiation candle. Losing is part of winning, and in the observed time, the system produced four out of five winners: 80%. Currently, the /6E is in an NLT Purple Zone (a sign of directional price ambiguity), and such, we do not initiate new trades until this stage is over.
In the observed period, the following return on capital engaged, based on maintenance margin, was achieved:
- Four, 30% return winners
- One losing trade – 30% times 1.2 (max risk) = 36%
- Return approximation: 30% x 4 – 36% = 84% ROC in 50 days
By the present maintenance margin of about $2,400 for one /6E contract, you see why we encourage you to look out for multiple income streams to engage your capital.
You see, we work with clear-cut traffic rules to prevent accidents when entering and following a price move. We share all of this in our training sessions and tune our programs for getting you fit to operate in the financial markets.
The /6E chart lets you trade multiple times in a developing price move, reducing decision making to a minimum and eliminating time as a deciding factor; thus, we call the new concept: NLT Timeless Trading. We use this chart setup for day and swing trading. Here a day trading example:
NLT Timeless Day Trading Chart for /ES on May 11, 2021
The chart shows five confirmed trade situations in a matter of two hours during the trading day of May 11, 2021: all winners.
When working with brokers who offer reduced day trading margins, day traders leverage their return on capital for /ES trades and achieve about a 40% ROC per trade.
We teach our programs and strategies one-on-one, at your best available days and times, focused on your wants and needs. Experience live how our systems work and find out which one is best suited for you. When signing up for NLT Top-Line, NLT Trend Catching in May of 2021, or the combination of both, the NLT Timeless Concept is included for FREE: a $3,997 value.
contact@NeverLossTrading.com, Subj. Timeless Summer 21
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
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Swing Trading Futures Contracts
In our effort to find trading opportunities and institutional price moves, we developed indicators and scanners that tell us the underlying happening of investments or investment changes in the financial markets.
At the end of the day, May 3, 2021, the NeverLossTrading market scanners picked up an additional demand for gold and gold mining companies.
Price developments of the commodity gold can be traded in multiple ways:
- Futures Contracts (/GC, /MGC)
- ETF (GLD)
- Options on GLD
The usual way of trading for a price move of the underlying asset is to check a time-based development.
/GC on the NLT Daily Chart, March 19 to May 4, 2021
Let us analyze the four trade situations highlighted, starting from the current situation and going back.
Situation-4: On May 3, 2021, the NLT Power Tower indicates a potential up move for the Gold Futures Contract with 1-SPU of $20.90, when the Price Threshold of Buy > $1,798.90 is surpassed in the price development of the next candle. Hence, we expect a value change of the underlying contract of $2,090 when coming to target. However, at the publication stage, the directional price move was not confirmed by May 4, 2021. Following our rules, we do not enter into a long directional trade until we receive confirmation.
Situation-3: 4/15/2021 the indication of Buy > $1,770.60 was confirmed in the price movement of the next candle and came to target on 4/21/2021. We disregard additional signals when being in a trade.
Situation-2: The buy signal was not confirmed, and we neglected the sell signal right after (an NLT no-trade rule, you learn in our mentorships).
Situation-2: Sell < $1.705.60 was surpassed in the price movement of the next candle and lead to a short trade to target (dot on the chart): $1,682.70.
Time-based setups might show unfavorable risk/reward correlations when the signal occurs on a highly expanded candle. To cope with this challenge, we developed the NLT Timeless Setups, and the chart for the same period looks as follows:
/GC on the NLT Daily Chart, March 19 to May 4, 2021
Situation-4: On April 13, 2021, the NLT Trend Catching Signal with a price threshold of Buy > $1,784.50 is surpassed in the price development of the next candle, and we expect a value change of the underlying contract of about $2,000 when coming to target. The price move was confirmed, and the trade came to target. At the current stage of the price development, we have no trade indication.
Situation-3: No trade at candle #5, and no trade at intra-momentum pullbacks. Details, we teach in our mentorships.
Situation-2: The buy signal was confirmed and came to target in the price development of the next day.
Situation-2: Sell < $1.714.5 was surpassed in the price movement of the next candle and lead to a short trade to target (dot on the chart)
Two different ways of approaching trade situations: both are suitable, valid and taught in our mentorship programs, where we teach one-on-one, with a focus on your specific goals, wants, and needs.
A Quick tip: buyers and sellers move the market; whoever has the upper hand moves the market in their direction. Hence, we developed the lower study: NeverLossTrading Balance of Power Indicator: It shows buyers in command when blue bars dominate and sellers in charge when red bars dominate. A confirming indicator for the action on the price chart. In any case, we want to simplify life for you, and the charts define:
- Entry Conditions: Execute buy-stop or sell-stop orders at pre-defined price thresholds at assumed probability
- Exit Condition: When is the target reached
- Stop Condition: When are you wrong and exit
- Risk Management: Risk limiting and risk-adjusted by considering the Relation of (Entry – Exit) / (Entry – Stop)
Swing Trading Concepts express one strategy of many; we teach in the hours of working together. Here a short overview of what you will all experience by operating with rule-based trading decisions as a day trader, swing trader or long-term investor in margin-, IRA, and even 401(k) accounts.
NLT Learning Program Overview
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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Apple Trading Strategy over Earnings
Summary: By the example of AAPL, we demonstrate how to follow a risk-limiting strategy to trade stocks over earnings.
There are multiple ways to decide for a trade:
- Fundamental
- Technical
- News Based
Whatever you use as determining variable, news can change the demand for a share drastically; hence, we need to consider news in our trading.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News, is a simple saying, but what do we do with it as a trader or investor?
Apple inc. is reporting first-quarter earnings today, April 28, 2021, after the stock market close. It is always exciting to hear what Apple has to say; however, today, we will experience a leading impact on the stock markets overall. The focal point of attention will be the introduction of the new generation of 5G capable phones. By 2025, 5G networks are likely to cover one-third of the world’s population and trigger a demand for at least 1.2 billion new phones. The impact on the mobile industry and its customers will be profound. 5G is more than a new generation of technologies; it denotes a new era in which connectivity will become increasingly fluid and flexible. Compare it to going from dial-up internet to broadband or high-speed internet: a significant change in capabilities.
AAPL stopped reporting units of iPhones sold in 2018. The iPhone segment accounts for about 50% of Apple’s revenue. We still were able to get some insights and into the market shares of units sold of the key players:
AAPL: 21 % market share, Samsung 16%, Xiaomi 11%, Oppo 9%, Huawei 9% and a wide variety of others covering the rest.
With the roll-out of 5G, communication companies, smartphone producers, and chip manufacturers are looking for profitable growth in the years to come.
All of this sounds just positive, but we still let the chart tell when to buy or sell:
AAPL Weekly Top-Line Chart, Nov. 2020 to April 2021
Chart Analysis:
Situation-1: After a time of ambiguity (NLT Purple Zone), where the price direction was uncertain, we had an end of purple zone signal with a buy-threshold > $134.40. The buy-stop order was filled in the price development of the next candle (week of 12/28/2020) and carried out to the target (dot on the chart), not considering further confirming signals. When the target price was reached, the share price pulled back, but we were out of the trade!
Situation-2: The NLT Top-Line signal of the week of 4/5/2021: Buy > $133.04 was confirmed in the price development of the week 4/12/2021, and such, we are long in AAPL with two potential targets: $139.89 (Target-1 to be reached on 1-5 candles) and $146.78 (Target-2 to be reached in max ten candles).
Trading over earnings has an uncontrollable risk; hence, we chose a limited-risk strategy, where we know at entry the max loss of the trade, regardless of the price development of AAPL. Most importantly, we will participate in potential upside opportunities and keep the ability to repair the trade if it goes wrong (the concept of never stop loss trading gave us our name, but we shortened it a little)
With the NLT concept, we simplify life for you and let the chart tell when to buy or sell, specifying all decision-making dimensions at once:
- Entry Conditions: Execute buy-stop or sell-stop orders at pre-defined price thresholds at assumed probability
- Exit Condition: When is the target reached
- Stop Condition: By not controlling the stop in the AAPL trade over earnings, we work without a stop but with a risk-limiting options trading strategy.
- Risk Management: Operating with limited-risk strategies only, we prevent drawdowns.
When you are familiar with options trading, you know that Vega, the volatility component in the options price, accelerates the cost of the option over news events like earnings. To not pay too much for the time we want to control the stock; we cover the potential time decay by combining risk-limiting options strategies on the stock options put- and call side: collecting premium and paying premium.
If trading was easy, nobody would ever go back to work. The good news: it is learnable.
The NLT trading concept over earnings announcement is only one strategy of many; we teach in the hours of working together. Here a short overview of what you will all experience by operating with rule-based trading decisions as a day trader, swing trader or long-term investor in margin-, IRA, and even 401(k) accounts.
NLT Learning Program Overview
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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Free Trading and Investing Magazine
We like to invite you to read the Traders World Magazine #80 for free.
You will find several articles explaining what is needed for trading our days.
On page 53 forward, we will relate to the question:
Trading and Investing Personality.
For questions:
Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com
Stay informed and subscribe to our free reports and webinars.
Good trading,
Thomas Barmann
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Trading Webinar Invitation
Do you know the one thing that’s holding your trading back?
93% of successful professional traders said they would have FAILED without learning the tools they needed from other traders!
We want to share our newest developments and concepts to provide you with a wealth of trading knowledge from different trading perspectives.
On February 11, I am taking part in a 3-speakers Trading Educator Forum.
It’s all online, so you can join in from the comfort of your own home or office.
It’s also 100% Free and recorded. So make sure you click the link below to
attend (or if you can’t make it). Add this fantastic event to your trading library.
Join me, and let’s take your trading to the next level.
⇒ Click Here to instantly register for InvestorExpos.com ⇐
By clicking this link, you will automatically be registered to attend the event!
Here is the line-up for the online event:
11:00 AM ET – Fausto Pugliese “How Retail Reddit Traders Squeezed Wall Street Hedge Funds”
11:45 AM ET – Simon Jousef “Market News and Trading”
12:30 PM ET – Thomas Barmann “Timeless Trading Imperatives”
For questions:
Call +1 866 455 4520 or contact@NeverLossTrading.com
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
Best regards,
Thomas
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Timeless Day Trading
Summary: A new high probability day trading concept with clear-cut rules for entries, exits, and stops. Read on or watch the video…click.
There are multiple ways to decide on a trade. When using technical analysis, you have the following variables to determine a potential price move setup:
- Price Change
- Volume Change
- Volatility Change
- Or a combination of those
The majority of trades are determined by a change of one of those variables over time: Moving averages would be a typical example for tracking and deciding based on an asset’s price movement over time.
Our brand name derives from the concept of repairing trades instead of taking the stop loss (Never Stop Loss Trading was a bit lengthy). There are ways to integrate our trade repair concept into day trading; however, today, we want to keep it simple and focus on positive exits and stops based on OCO orders.
You most likely experienced that you predicted the future price move; however, on a counter-price-action, you got stopped, and you were out of a trade before it commenced in your predicted direction: Producing a loss instead of the desired win.
Like in a chess game: Acting with predictable moves is rarely a winning strategy.
If you use a dynamic, less predictable entry, exit, and stop definition, you certainly have the chance to increase your trading accuracy. Here an overview of the most commonly used trading decisions.
Share of the Usage of Trading Decision Making Variables
In the concept we introduce today, time is taken out of cohesion. This will make your decisions less predictable; however, the stronger argument of the idea is:
We are helping you to simplify your trading decisions by specifying conditions to execute bracket or OCO orders along with the price movement of underlying assets.
The system works for all asset classes: Stocks, Futures, and FOREX.
What we casually named variables are, in reality, results of an underlying change in supply and demand. In the base economic principle, price is a result of a change in supply and demand. Time is not considered as a determining factor. The model assumes that markets regulate themselves instantaneously by economic principles. Following this model, we predict price moves with high probability by the Timeless NLT Concept.
Excursion into the economic principle of an exchange:
Supply and Demand Correlations
The above graph gives a relation of the quantity offered and the resulting price. In the current situation, additional demand for a stock at $100 occurs. If no additional supply occurs, the equilibrium will move up to match supply and demand at $110.
The typical problem for a trader is: In hindsight, you know what happened, and we want to help you predict the future price happening with high predictability and frequently by our systems and concepts.
Money flow accepts price as the resulting variable of a change in supply and demand and specifies potential price move setups with clearly defined:
- Entries (price threshold)
- Exits (targets)
- Stops (wrong assumption)
With our systems and strategies, we want to help you to higher accuracy:
- Only accepting a trade when the direction is confirmed
- Exiting at a pre-defined target, prevening for the price to pull back and taking your profits away before you realize them
- Choosing an adequate stop, so you are not taken out of a trade by a too-tight stop and keeping reward and risk in a meaningful balance.
A Quick tip: buyers and sellers move the market; whoever has the upper hand moves the market in their direction.
Today, we want to focus on day trading and refer to swing trading or longer-term investing in separate documentation.
By the NLT Timeless Concept, we simplify life for you and let the chart tell when to buy or sell, specifying all decision making dimensions at once:
- Entry Conditions: Execute buy-stop or sell-stop orders at pre-defined price thresholds at assumed probability
- Exit Condition: When is the target reached
- Stop Condition: When are you wrong and exit
- Risk Management: Risk limiting and risk-adjusted by considering the Relation of (Entry – Exit) / (Entry – Stop)
When day trading for pre-defined price moves, positions are kept open for a couple of bars/candles but always close the same day.
One of the NLT Timeless Concept clients just said: “Now I am feeling comfortable, walking away from the trade without feeling the need for controlling it.”
Let us show you why by a chart example, using a combination of NLT Top-Line and Trend Catching indicators in a short video…click.
Crude Oil Futures, April 4 to 6, 2021, NLT Timeless Chart
Chart Analysis:
- Five trade situations show on the chart. Situation-5 at the recording was still open but came to target, so did the other four. Our average accuracy with this system is above 65%.
- Entry condition: when the spelled out price threshold is surpassed in the price development of the next candle:
Example: Situation-1, Sell < $60.49 was fulfilled in the next candle and lead to a price move to the target: dots on the chart. Targets are also spelled out in the upper left NLT dashboard.
- Stops at the red crossbars
- Never enter a trade at the exit candle: stop or target.
- The average trade produced a value change of the underlying contract of about $500.
- The chart combines two systems: NLT Top-Line and NLT Trend Catching, while in the recorded days, all signals derived from NLT Trend Catching.
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures, April 5, 2021, NLT Timeless Chart
Chart Analysis:
- Three trade situations that all came to target.
- Situation-1, Buy > $4039.50 had a combination of indicators: NLT End of Purple Zone and Trend Initiation, confirmed by the next candle’s price movement and the trade came to target.
- We disregarded the following two signals: Crossing an NLT Lime Line and entering at the 3-SPU-Level from the trend initiation candle.
- Situation-2: had a reversal setup in the continuation of the upside price move, and it came to target
The question is, how do you administer the trades?
You place buy-stop or sell stop bracket orders and do not administer the trade by following specific rules, shown in the video…click.
The NLT Timeless Day Trading Concept is only one strategy of many; we teach in the hours of working together. Here a short overview of what you will all experience by operating with rule-based trading decisions as a day trader, swing trader or long-term investor in margin-, IRA, and even 401(k) accounts.
NLT Learning Program Overview
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 Compared
On March 22, 2021, we already reported the tight correlation of the worldwide stock markets…check our article. In our day-to-day comparison, we usually use the DAX; however, equities are not trading today in Germany due to a holiday.
Our correlation study shows a 74% correlation between the Nikkei and the S&P 500 development. Such, the Nikkei 225 functions as a potential forerunner for the S&P 500. By opening 12 hours ahead of Wallstreet, the Nikkei 225 is about 1.33-times more volatile than the S&P 500
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ are the largest stock exchange operators worldwide, accounting for 56% of the world’s stock value exchanged.
Nikkei 225 and US Exchanges Compared (1/2021, trill. USD)
With shares in the value of 6.4 trillion dollars exchanged the Japan stock exchange ranks the closest in size to the US exchanges. For building a correlation, we compare the sector share of the Nikkei 225 and the S&P 500.
The comparison graph shows similarity, where the major differences show in the sectors of Industry, Energy, Financials, and Consumer Discr.
Listing the Top-Ten Companies in the Nikkei 225, we see the following:
| Company | Sector | Share (%) |
| FAST RETAILING LTD | Consumer Discr. | 10,71 |
| SOFTBANK GROUP CORP | Communication | 6,86 |
| TOKYO ELECTRON LTD | IT | 5,96 |
| FANUC CORP | Industry | 3,35 |
| DAIKIN INDUSTRIES LTD | Industry | 2,74 |
| KDDI CORP | Communication | 2,51 |
| ADVANTEST CORP | IT | 2,46 |
| M3 INC | Health Care | 2,35 |
| SHIN ETSU CHEMICAL LTD | Materials | 2,30 |
| TERUMO CORP | Health Care | 1,95 |
Nikkei and S&P 500 Six-Months Compared
This week, the FOMC meeting with minutes at 2 p.m. Wednesday might hold the markets back until we get feedback from the FED about the monetary policy and economic outlook. Hence, we focus on shorter-term opportunities indicated by the NLT Timeless Trading Concept, where we simplify life for you, letting the chart will tell when to buy or sell!
Here an example:
E-Mini S&P 500 NLT Timeless Chart April 1 to 5, 2021
The system highlighted multiple long-trading opportunities along with the price move on April 1, 2021. At 6 a.m. ET, our NLT Top-Line shows a Purple Zone: a sign of directional price ambiguity.
Each confirmed trading opportunity stood for a price change of about $450 of the underlying Futures contract. Our charts display on thinkorswim of TD Ameritrade, while most of our day traders execute orders on Ninja Trader due to favorable margins associations.
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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Trade Money Flow
What would it do to your trading if you could measure and follow money flow?
Your decisions would move from average to high probability, and this is what we want to invite you to experience.
We use complicated algorithmic models to indicate when to expect directional price moves and how far they shall reach. But you do not need to be concerned about the math; our systems put clearly defined entry, exit, stop-conditions on the chart for you: easy to read and follow.
Yesterday, our NLT Timeless Trade provided us with multiple opportunities along with the price movement of the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Index Contract. Check the graph below and let the chart tell when to buy or sell:
/ES NLT Timeless Chart, March 31, 2021
Summary
The chart shows five trade situations, where we entered with buy-stop or sell-stop orders when the spelled out price threshold is surpassed in the next candle’s price movement. The target, you find indicated by a gray dot on the chart. A red crossbar shows where you put the stop. Each of those trades generated about $250.
If you want to learn more: contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj. Timeless.
On an everyday basis, we check institutional money flow:
April 1, 2021. Our indicators highlighted that another 5.2 bill. USD went to High Yield Corporate Bonds yesterday. Last week, we saw 12.4 bill. USD going into this form of investment. Behind corporate bonds, you find companies like Blackrock Treasury Fund, Ford, T-Mobile USA, with yields from 5% to 8%. Something private investors usually have no access to. Gold and gold miners attracted 2.2 bill USD and triggered a potential bottom reversal setup.
Employment numbers are in focus today, and we might see some volatility around 8:30 a.m. Please consider that the US markets are closed tomorrow, observing Good Friday.
Today we have a selected chipmaker and a biotech company on the radar for potential long positions. Longer-term, we check on a consumer goods company and a pharmaceutical company for possible shorts. We publish the details in our NLT Alerts, and one tip from NLT can often pay the monthly fee.
Follow our market indications on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/neverlosstrading/
We focus on teaching systems and strategies to operate in the financials market one-on-one, at your best available days and times.
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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Measure and Follow Money Flow
Would knowing where the money is flowing make a change to your trading and investing endeavors?
The basis of NeverLossTrading is to measure and follow money flow: a powerful approach for high probability trading and investing.
Where is the edge:
As a private investor, you are faster in out of positions than institutions can do.
We use complicated algorithmic models to indicate when to expect directional price moves and how far they shall reach. But you do not need to be concerned about the math; our systems put clearly defined entry, exit, stop-conditions on the chart for you: easy to read and follow. Here a day trading example:
NLT Timeless E-Mini S&P 500 Futures, March 23, 2021
The NLT Timeless approach takes time out of the cohesion and concentrates on the price change as the triggering element to trade:
What you see on the chart:
- Sell Signal: Sell < $3,922.8, and in the price movement of the next candle, the set price threshold for a sell-stop order was surpassed and triggered a short trade.
- Target-1: Gray dot on the chart, standing for the short-term trading goal. Here about 8-points or a value change of the underlying futures contract of $400.
- Target-2: Further out target, we trail for with the red line of the NLT Double Decker, framing the price move in red.
- NLT Lime Line: A price gravitation line. Ther, we assume price accumulation but also a pressure for prices to get to this level. In our case, the NLT Lime-Line and target-2 coincide and allowed for a 22-point price change or a value change of the underlying futures contract of $1,100.
- The chart shows muliple price continuation signals on the way down, which we appreciate but disregard while we are in a trade.
The system sure works for other assets too, and if you are interested to learn more: contact@NeverLossTrading.com, Subj. TimeLess
Institutional investments dominate more than 85% of the financial markets. Price is the result of a change in supply and demand. It is good to know where the institutional money goes; such, our indicators mapped out the sectors with extraordinary attention during the trading day of March 23, 2021. The NeverLossTrading indicators highlighted sectors NLT Power Tower setups (exceptional happenings): indicating selling pressure in the sectors of Biotech and Gold Miners.
Today, March 24, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. ET, Durable Goods orders will give an indication for the industry sector development, which had selling pressure yesterday. At 10 a.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell’s prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill. We report more details on our NLT Alerts, where we list stocks and funds with a price move indication.
Follow our market indications on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/neverlosstrading/
We focus on teaching systems and strategies to operate in the financials market one-on-one, at your best available days and times.
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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Worldwide Stock Exchanges Compared
The development of the worldwide stock markets seems to be significantly correlated. Daily, we look at the DAX as a forerunner for the US exchanges’. In our latest publications, we shared the DAX, FTSE, and CAC stock market composition. Today, we give a relation of the markets by size, based on market capitalization.
A stock exchange is a marketplace where stockbrokers, traders, buyers, and sellers can trade in equities products. The largest exchanges have thousands of listed companies. These companies sell shares of their business, allowing the general public to invest in them. The oldest exchange worldwide is the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, founded in the late sixteenth century.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ are the largest stock exchange operators worldwide. The US stock exchanges account for 56% of the world’s stock value exchanged by market capitalization.
Largest stock exchange operators worldwide as of January 2021, by market capitalization of listed companies (in trillion U.S. dollars)
The European exchanges open about six hours ahead of the US exchanges, and such we take their development as a reference for the US trading session to come.
While nearly every country in Europe has a stock exchange, only five are considered major, reaching a market capitalization above one trillion U.S dollars.
European Stock Exchanges Ranked by Market Capitalization 2021 (bill. USD)
European stock exchanges make up two of the top ten major global stock markets. Europe’s biggest stock exchange is the Euronext which combines five markets based in Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, Lisbon, London, Oslo and Paris. As of December 31, 2020, the luxury goods company LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton was the largest company listed on the Euronext Stock Exchange by market capitalization. Globally, the Euronext Stock Exchange is the seventh-largest.
What stands out in the above chart is the Swiss Exchange. With a population of 8.5 million people, compared to Germany, Switzerland has about 10% of the population but a very sizable stock exchange. By in sector composition closest to the US exchanges, we pick the DAX as a reference point.
In an overview, this is how the S&P 500 and the DAX 30 compare by sector:
Today, March 22, 2021, the DAX opened lower, triggered by fear of a third COVID-19 wave. However, the DAX in its session recovered and prints about at par to Friday’s close.
DAX and S&P 500 Development Compared
For now, we mostly focus on shorter-term opportunities indicated by the NLT Timeless Trading Concept, where we simplify life for you, letting the chart will tell when to buy or sell!
Here an example:
E-Mini S&P 500 Futures on Friday, March 19, 2021, on the NLT Timeless Chart
We highlighted two trading opportunities:
- Long at 11:54 a.m. ET
- Short into the close
Both trading opportunities gained about 8-points or stood for a value change of the underlying contract of $400 each.
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
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We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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USA and UK Stock Markets Compared
Today, March 12, 2021, the worldwide stock markets open lighter after data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the GDP shrank by 2.9% in January (even so, the data was better than expected).
Is the composition of the UK stock market similar to the US?
The above graph compares the FTSE and S&P 500 by sector, and we recognize that the most significant difference is found in Technology. In contrast, the UK shows a stronger dependency on Material, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Financials.
Our scanners also showed that about two billion dollars went into Asian funds yesterday, primarily China, which gives you an indication for mid-term opportunities, where you might want to focus on confirmed signals at stocks like JD, TWS, BABA, BIDU (we have no confirmed buy signal yet). Let the chart tell when to buy or sell!
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Questions: contact@NeverLossTrading.com
Good trading,
Gold and the Australian Dollar
In many publications a direct correlation between the AUS (Australian Dollar) and gold is assumed.
Let us check if this holds true:
Gold and the Australian Dollar
At the end of March 10, 2021, our indicators showed demand for gold, the AUD/USD, and the AUD/JPY currency pair. How related is such demand? Some analysts state freely that Australia is the biggest gold-producing country, but it is not: China and Russia are. However, gold could be a more significant part of Australia’s GDP; but it is not. The above weekly line graph shows the gold price development in red/blue, compared with the AUD/USD (pink) for the last three years, and you see a potential trend relationship. Still, it is not significant, and each instrument develops and trades independently from the other. Both seem to be in a possible recovery mode, and we suggest trading what you see: let the chart tell when to buy or sell! The NeverLossTrading indicators paint it on the chart for you.
Pre-Market, the worldwide stock markets continue their uptick, but we did not see significant commitments yesterday that we can report back. Today at 8:30 a.m. ET, initial jobless claims and posted job openings are news events to watch out for. The /ES daily price development remains in an NLT Purple Zone and, by that, shows directional ambiguity.
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Questions: contact@NeverLossTrading.com
Good trading,
Measuring Institutional Money Flow
Institutional investments dominate more than 85% of the financial markets. Price is the result of a change in supply and demand
It is good to know where the institutional money goes; such, our indicators mapped out the sectors with extraordinary attention during the trading day of March 9, 2021. The NeverLossTrading indicators highlighted several sectors with NLT Power Tower setups (exceptional happenings). Check the above chart. Primarily, we saw confidence coming back into the future value of the NASDAQ 100 companies, where semiconductors got special attention. In front of the consumer-price-index development report today at 8:30 a.m. ET, the sector Consumer Discretionary showed money inflow. We assume that the price index report will take the potential fear of inflation away, which usually results in confident market investments. Gold and emerging markets got attention, but on a smaller scale. We report the details on our NLT All-in-One Alert, where we list stocks and funds with attention. In summary, some swing trading and mid-term opportunities are present.
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
Questions: contact@NeverLossTrading.com
Good trading,
Invitation to the upcoming Traders and Investors Summit
You are invited to join a club of unique individuals who know what will happen next in the stocks market – and your invitation is for FREE!
Learn how to conquer and take your share from the markets.
Sign up for this unique opportunity… click.
This is a club of unique individuals who know what is going to happen next in the stock market.
It’s not just stocks, but bonds, commodities, energy, precious metals, foreign exchange, and real estate as well.
No, this is not some ivory tower analysis of the state of the world. This is a rare gathering of professionals that will inform you how to make money in the markets TODAY!
Simply register for the Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit starting on Tuesday, March 9 at 8:45 AM EST sharp.
Take advantage of this opportunity to tap 27 of the most brilliant minds in the investment world today. It is a who’s who that will knock your socks off.
Pick up a few of the tips they are offering, and suddenly planning your financial future will graduate from a tedious chore to an enjoyable pastime.
To do so, all you have to do is register for the March Mad Hedge Traders & Investors Summit starting on Tuesday, Mary 9 at 8:45 AM EST.
These are dedicated pros who can make money in any market conditions, including during a Covid-19 pandemic.
Listening to these speakers will give you the financial security you urgently need.
Best of all, attendance is FREE.
To sign up, please click here!
Thank you!
Thomas
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Stock Trading Challenges
For more than ten years, the stock markets were moving upward and allowed for trend trading, but what do you do if there is no trend to make your friend?
The answer is: Momentum trading; however, it is easier said than done? What momentum to trade for and how?
Read on and watch the movie…click.
Already two questions at once:
- What momentum, meaning the price distance to trade for
- How, meaning with which risk-limiting strategy
We simplify life for you with the NLT Timeless Swing Trading Concept: The chart will tell when to buy or sell!
A new price results from a change in supply and demand. In other words: The price express where supply and demand are finding the equilibrium or match.
The following graph shows a situation with an additional demand for a stock at $100. If no additional supply occurs, the equilibrium will move up to match supply and demand at 110.
Supply and Demand Schematic
In the NLT Timeless Swing Trading Concept, we make price-move-increments the deciding factor and not time; this is why it is called timeless.
All decision making dimensions are specified at once:
- Entry Conditions: When to trade and probability, with buy-stop or sell-stop orders
- Exit Condition: When is the target reached
- Stop Condition: When are you wrong and exit
- Risk Management: Risk limiting and risk-adjusted by considering the Relation of (Entry – Exit) / (Entry – Stop)
- Time: For how long to maximum stay in a trade
- Options Conditions: Strike price to choose, time to expiration, maximum price to pay for the option
Why do options come into play? I want to trade stocks only?
Momentum trades are typically swing-trades, and positions are kept open for a couple of days. Trading stocks only exposes you to the risk of overnight gaps. Your stop is a market stop, and if you considered a 2% risk and the stock gaps overnight by 10% or more, you book that loss because you accepted an unbalanced risk. Drawdowns are the biggest threat for building up a swing trading account.
The solution to this problem is:
- Trading for the stock price development buy choosing options: in our case, buying Puts or Calls
- Trading stocks in combination with options: Long stock or short stock, together with a protective option
Why do options offer a limited risk trading strategy?
In the strategies we choose, the maximum risk to take is limited by the premium to pay.
But how to know if an option is reasonably priced or overpriced?
This is where the NLT Timeless Tick comes into play: A proprietary algorithm for NLT concept owners that tells you:
- Price-move, not time based when to enter and exit
- Acceptable price range: NLT Timeless Tick ± 20%
- Strike price to choose
- Minimum time to expiration to select
The underlying stock reaching the target will define the exit or the stop, all auto-executed by conditional orders, not requiring you to be in front of your computer.
Best explained by an example:
Here is how the chart looks like:
AAPL, NLT Timeless Swing Trading Chart, 1/20 – 2/24/2021
Chart Analysis:
SPY, NLT Timeless Swing Trading Chart, 1/26 – 2/26/2021
Situation-1: Sell threshold confirmed and came to target the same day.
Situation-2: Sell threshold confirmed and came to target the same day.
Situation-3: Buy threshold confirmed and came to target at the opening of the next day.
Situation-4: Buy > 385.94 came to target the day after entry. The signal after would not be considered by being three price increments away from the buy initiation candle: Buy > 375. 52. We teach those rules in the hours of joint training and coaching
Situation-5: Sell < $388.56 was confirmed the next day and allowed a solid opportunity to buy Put options for following the price development that came to target three days after. Further price indications along the way to target or stop will not be considered.
Situation-6: Buy > $389.73 was stopped two days after entry, and we would not enter at the signal of the exit candle.
Situation-7: the trade is still open at the point of writing this article.
In total: five winning trades, one loss, and one open trade: high probability as we strive for with short-term swing trading opportunities.
The NLT Timeless Swing Trading Concept is only one element of what we teach in the hours of working together. Here a short overview of what you will all experience by operating with automated trading decisions in all of your accounts:
NLT Learning Program Overview
Let us be your guide to a consistent trader and investor and schedule a free consulting session, where you can see live what our systems can do for you:
contact@NeverLossTrading.com Subj: Consulting Hour
Working one-on-one spots are extremely limited: Do not miss out!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
We are looking forward to hearing back from you.
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VIX and Stock Market Outlook
On February 25, 202, volatility came back into the financial markets. The VIX is a real-time market index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. The VIX is calculated based on the S&P 500 index options; it provides a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments. It is also known as the “Fear Index.” Uncertainty about the future of consumer spending (we reported on this prior) made the markets move to the downside, but how to use the VIX for finding price turning points? Check the chart above for yesterday’s price development, and it shows three phases of the S&P 500 price development; you were able act on by the NLT Timeless Chart. The market plunge was not foreseeable on the day prior but intraday by the NLT indicators… Do the same for today: prefer shorter-term trading and let the chart tell when to buy or sell!
For more of our free publications and webinars…sign up here.
Good trading,
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